Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 23, 11:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Suns
OKC	This season	PHX
4-2	Record	1-3
3-3	ATS	0-4
1-5	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 113–110 · win probability OKC 60%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

OKC 5, PHX 1 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

PHX offense vs OKC defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

OKCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, PHX 22.8. Allowed: OKC 23.4, PHX 31.1

OKCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, PHX 65.1%

OKCSmall

Recent form

Last 4: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, OKC 1-2 away

OKCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

Even

OKC offense vs PHX defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 35.8% and 45.1% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, PHX 17.1%

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: OKC away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 24	@ PHX	W125–114WO
Mar 26	vs LAC	W108–101LU
Mar 28	@ MIN	W116–103WU

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 24	vs OKC	L114–125LO
Mar 26	vs MIL	L105–108LU
Mar 28	vs TOR	W120–98WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

OKC 16–8 PHXOKC leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 5 meetings · OKC 14-9-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 26, 2026-27	PHX 114 @ OKC 125	OKC -8.5	OKC W
Apr 27, 2025-26	OKC 131 @ PHX 122	PHX +11.5	PHX W
Apr 25, 2025-26	OKC 121 @ PHX 109	PHX +8.5	OKC W
Apr 22, 2025-26	PHX 107 @ OKC 120	OKC -17.5	PHX W
Apr 19, 2025-26	PHX 84 @ OKC 119	OKC -16.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 2, Suns 1, even 2

ThunderBetterSuns

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

Even

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCBig

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

Even

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

PHXSmall

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

OKCBig

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

ThunderBetterSuns

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Even

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCBig

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

OKCBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

PHX5.3 #10

OKC		PHX
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.12 #12
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
30.9 #26	3-point %	35.0 #16
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
21.7 #29	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
8.3 #20	Steals per game	9.0 #15
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Suns

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Suns

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Suns