Toronto Raptors at Portland Trail Blazers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 23, 10:00 PM ETModa Center · at Trail Blazers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Trail Blazers
TOR	This season	POR
3-3	Record	4-1
3-3	ATS	3-2
3-3	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 115–111 · win probability POR 59%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

TOR 1, POR 4 · 2026-27 so far

PORBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, POR 35.9. Allowed: TOR 41.5, POR 27.8

PORBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3

PORBig

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 38.1% and 51.5% of their shots

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, POR 14.6%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, POR 14.8%

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PORSmall

Home court

POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, TOR 1-2 away

Even

TOR offense vs POR defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4

Even

POR offense vs TOR defense

Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, POR 77.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
POR WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	—

Venue/role: TOR away; POR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
POR UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
PORlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 25	@ GS	W145–127WO
Mar 27	@ SAC	L115–123LO
Mar 28	@ PHX	L98–120LU

Trail Blazers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 26	vs PHI	L103–109LU
Mar 27	vs MIL	W130–99WO
Mar 30	vs HOU	L99–106LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

TOR 4–6 PORPOR leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · TOR has won the last 2 meetings · TOR 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 23, 2025-26	TOR 110 @ POR 98	POR +3.5	TOR W
Dec 2, 2025-26	POR 118 @ TOR 121	TOR -4.5	POR W
Apr 3, 2024-25	POR 112 @ TOR 103	TOR +5.5	POR W
Mar 16, 2024-25	TOR 102 @ POR 105	POR -7.5	TOR W
Mar 9, 2023-24	TOR 118 @ POR 128	POR +2.5	POR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Trail Blazers

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsPHX	W 124-83	-3.5	W +37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 23	@SAC	W 128-120	-9.5	L −1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 27	@LAL	W 136-129	+1.5	W +8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 29	vsMEM	L 103-124	-7.5	L −28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	@UTAH	W 112-90	-6.5	W +15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

+37.5

SAC

W 128-120

−1.5

LAL

W 136-129

+8.5

MEM

L 103-124

−28.5

UTAH

W 112-90

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

−25.5

SAC

W 128-120

+16.5

LAL

W 136-129

+30.5

MEM

L 103-124

−6.5

UTAH

W 112-90

−30.5

over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Raptors 2, Trail Blazers 2, even 1

RaptorsBetterTrail Blazers

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

PORBig

G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

TORSmall

G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

Even

F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

TORBig

F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

PORSmall

C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74

RaptorsBetterTrail Blazers

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Even

POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

Even

POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

PORBig

Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORSmall

Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

PORBig

Bench+15.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Trail Blazers

Guards

D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min

Forwards

D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min

Centers

D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min

Out

J. MorantOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

POR120.6 #4

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

POR1.16 #5

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

POR103.5 #14

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

POR56.2 #4

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

POR35.3 #12

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

POR51.5 #1

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

POR35.9 #3

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

POR14.6 #9

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

POR27.6 #14

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

POR26.2 #17

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

POR109.2 #10

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

POR1.06 #10

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

POR51.3 #8

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

POR32.1 #8

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

POR14.8 #20

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

POR77.3 #3

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

POR8.6 #18

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

POR4.2 #21

TOR		POR
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	120.6 #4
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.16 #5
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	103.5 #14
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	56.2 #4
32.0 #24	3-point %	35.3 #12
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	51.5 #1
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	35.9 #3
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	14.6 #9
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	27.6 #14
29.2 #2	Assists per game	26.2 #17
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	109.2 #10
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #10
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #8
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #8
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	14.8 #20
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	77.3 #3
12.7 #2	Steals per game	8.6 #18
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	4.2 #21

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Jazz112–90
Lvs Grizzlies103–124
W@ Lakers136–129
W@ Kings128–120
Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Trail Blazers

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Trail Blazers

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Trail Blazers