Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 23, 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · at Jazz

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Jazz
PHI	This season	UTAH
6-1	Record	1-5
4-3	ATS	1-5
2-5	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 116–111 · win probability PHI 64%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

PHI 6, UTAH 2 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, UTAH 13.3%

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UTAHBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, UTAH 77.1%

PHIBig

UTAH offense vs PHI defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHIBig

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 39.5% and 41.7% of their shots

PHISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9

PHISmall

PHI offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

UTAHSmall

Home court

UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, PHI 3-0 away

PHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: PHI 28.5, UTAH 33.8

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-4	—

Venue/role: PHI away; UTAH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 24	@ GS	W113–94WU
Mar 26	@ POR	W109–103WU
Mar 28	@ DEN	L96–124LU

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 25	@ MIA	W115–111WU
Mar 27	@ ATL	L119–121WU
Mar 28	@ CHA	L95–150LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHI 7–3 UTAHPHI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 5 meetings · PHI 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 21, 2025-26	PHI 126 @ UTAH 116	UTAH +5.5	PHI W
Mar 4, 2025-26	UTAH 102 @ PHI 106	PHI -7.5	UTAH W
Mar 9, 2024-25	UTAH 122 @ PHI 126	PHI -6.5	UTAH W
Dec 28, 2024-25	PHI 114 @ UTAH 111	UTAH +7.5	UTAH W
Feb 1, 2023-24	PHI 127 @ UTAH 124	UTAH -4.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 4, Jazz 1, even 0

76ersBetterJazz

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

PHIBig

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

PHISmall

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

PHIBig

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

UTAHBig

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

PHIBig

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

76ersBetterJazz

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

PHISmall

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

PHISmall

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

UTAHBig

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

UTAH108.7 #24

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

UTAH1.05 #25

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

UTAH104.0 #12

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

UTAH51.0 #24

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

UTAH32.6 #23

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

UTAH41.7 #21

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

UTAH31.6 #10

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

UTAH17.0 #25

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

UTAH25.7 #22

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

UTAH26.2 #19

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

UTAH118.8 #25

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

UTAH1.14 #25

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

UTAH53.9 #18

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

UTAH37.6 #25

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

UTAH13.3 #28

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

UTAH77.1 #4

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

UTAH6.2 #29

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

UTAH6.5 #5

PHI		UTAH
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	108.7 #24
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.05 #25
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	104.0 #12
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	51.0 #24
34.0 #20	3-point %	32.6 #23
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #21
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	31.6 #10
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	17.0 #25
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	25.7 #22
25.1 #22	Assists per game	26.2 #19
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	118.8 #25
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #25
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #18
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #25
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	13.3 #28
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	77.1 #4
9.6 #7	Steals per game	6.2 #29
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	6.5 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Jazz

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Jazz

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Jazz