Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 23, 8:00 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Heat
LAL	This season	MIA
5-2	Record	2-4
4-3	ATS	2-4
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 120–119 · win probability LAL 54%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 239.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

LAL 3, MIA 3 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs MIA defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

MIA offense vs LAL defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALBig

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 45.7% and 41.7% of their shots

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MIASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, MIA 15.4%

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, LAL 2-1 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, MIA 72.3%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, MIA 27.3. Allowed: LAL 30.7, MIA 23.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: LAL away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 25	@ CLE	W127–113WO
Mar 28	@ HOU	W98–78WU
Mar 30	@ MEM	W120–114WU

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 25	vs UTAH	L111–115LU
Mar 27	vs BOS	L129–147LO
Mar 29	@ CLE	L128–149LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAL 5–5 MIASeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 3 meetings · LAL 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 19, 2025-26	LAL 134 @ MIA 126	MIA -3.5	LAL W
Nov 2, 2025-26	MIA 120 @ LAL 130	LAL -4.5	LAL W
Jan 15, 2024-25	MIA 108 @ LAL 117	LAL -4.5	LAL W
Dec 4, 2024-25	LAL 93 @ MIA 134	MIA -3.5	MIA W
Jan 3, 2023-24	MIA 110 @ LAL 96	LAL -5.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Lakers 2, Heat 2, even 1

LakersBetterHeat

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

LALSmall

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

LALBig

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

MIABig

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

Even

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

MIASmall

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

LakersBetterHeat

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

LALBig

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

MIABig

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

MIA118.3 #9

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

MIA1.11 #14

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

MIA106.2 #5

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

MIA54.6 #12

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

MIA34.1 #19

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

MIA41.7 #20

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

MIA27.3 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

MIA14.1 #5

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

MIA24.5 #24

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

MIA28.8 #3

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

MIA121.5 #26

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

MIA1.15 #26

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

MIA56.8 #27

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

MIA40.6 #29

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

MIA15.4 #18

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

MIA72.3 #17

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

MIA8.3 #19

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

MIA5.0 #13

LAL		MIA
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	118.3 #9
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.11 #14
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #5
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	54.6 #12
38.9 #4	3-point %	34.1 #19
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	27.3 #19
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	14.1 #5
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	24.5 #24
23.4 #27	Assists per game	28.8 #3
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	121.5 #26
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #26
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	56.8 #27
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	40.6 #29
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	15.4 #18
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #17
10.4 #4	Steals per game	8.3 #19
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	5.0 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Heat

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Heat

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Heat