Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 20, 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Bucks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Bucks
IND	This season	MIL
2-5	Record	1-5
3-4	ATS	2-4
3-4	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IND 117–116 · win probability IND 51%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

IND 3, MIL 2 · 2026-27 so far

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, MIL 74.2%

INDBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: IND 14.9%, MIL 12.2%

INDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points

MILSmall

Home court

MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, IND 2-2 away

INDSmall

IND offense vs MIL defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, MIL 23.9. Allowed: IND 32.1, MIL 29.7

Even

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 43.1% and 45.9% of their shots

Even

MIL offense vs IND defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: IND away; MIL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 22	@ ORL	W128–126WO
Mar 24	vs MEM	L106–125LU
Mar 25	vs SA	L119–134WO

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 22	vs WSH	L116–128LO
Mar 24	@ LAC	L113–127WO
Mar 26	@ PHX	W108–105WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 33 since 2021-22

IND 14–19 MILMIL leads · 33 games since 2021-22 · MIL has won the last 5 meetings · IND 14-19 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 26, 2026-27	IND 102 @ MIL 110	MIL +3.5	MIL W
Mar 15, 2025-26	IND 123 @ MIL 134	MIL -7.5	MIL W
Feb 6, 2025-26	IND 99 @ MIL 105	MIL +1.5	MIL W
Dec 23, 2025-26	MIL 111 @ IND 94	IND +1.5	MIL W
Nov 3, 2025-26	MIL 117 @ IND 115	IND +6.5	IND W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pacers has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 3, Bucks 1, even 1

PacersBetterBucks

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

INDBig

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

INDSmall

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

Even

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

INDBig

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

MILBig

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

PacersBetterBucks

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Even

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

Even

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

INDBig

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

MIL113.0 #17

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

MIL1.07 #20

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

MIL106.2 #4

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

MIL52.0 #21

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

MIL33.9 #21

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

MIL45.9 #8

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

MIL23.9 #25

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

MIL15.8 #18

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

MIL29.7 #8

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

MIL26.0 #20

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

MIL126.2 #28

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

MIL1.18 #28

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

MIL55.4 #24

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

MIL34.9 #14

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

MIL12.2 #30

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

MIL74.2 #10

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

MIL5.7 #30

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

MIL4.0 #27

IND		MIL
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	113.0 #17
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.07 #20
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #4
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	52.0 #21
34.1 #18	3-point %	33.9 #21
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #8
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	23.9 #25
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	15.8 #18
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #8
28.0 #7	Assists per game	26.0 #20
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	126.2 #28
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #28
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	55.4 #24
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #14
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	12.2 #30
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	74.2 #10
6.9 #27	Steals per game	5.7 #30
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	4.0 #27

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ Bucks

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Bucks

Pacers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Bucks