Atlanta Hawks at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 20, 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawks and Clippers
ATL	This season	LAC
3-4	Record	1-5
3-4	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 114–114 · win probability LAC 50%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

ATL 3, LAC 2 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, LAC 17.0%

LACBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, LAC 28.0. Allowed: ATL 32.1, LAC 24.7

ATLBig

LAC offense vs ATL defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

ATLSmall

ATL offense vs LAC defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, ATL 2-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, LAC 70.9%

Even

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 44.7% and 42.3% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: ATL away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 22	@ GS	W126–110WO
Mar 24	@ SAC	W123–113LO
Mar 27	vs UTAH	W121–119LU

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 22	vs DAL	W116–103WU
Mar 24	vs MIL	W127–113LO
Mar 26	@ OKC	L101–108WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

ATL 4–6 LACLAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ATL 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2025-26	LAC 115 @ ATL 92	ATL -1.5	LAC W
Nov 10, 2025-26	ATL 105 @ LAC 102	LAC -4.5	ATL W
Mar 14, 2024-25	LAC 121 @ ATL 98	ATL +4.5	LAC W
Jan 4, 2024-25	ATL 105 @ LAC 131	LAC -7.5	LAC W
Mar 17, 2023-24	ATL 110 @ LAC 93	LAC -9.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 4, Clippers 0, even 1

HawksBetterClippers

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

ATLBig

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

ATLBig

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

ATLSmall

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

Even

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

ATLSmall

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

HawksBetterClippers

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

ATLSmall

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

ATLSmall

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

ATLBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

LACBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ATL116.3 #13

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

ATL1.10 #16

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

ATL105.6 #7

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

ATL52.6 #19

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

ATL32.8 #22

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

ATL44.7 #11

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

ATL23.4 #26

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

ATL13.8 #4

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

ATL27.1 #18

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

ATL30.7 #1

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

ATL115.4 #19

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

ATL1.10 #17

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

ATL54.5 #22

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

ATL31.9 #7

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

ATL18.3 #2

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

ATL70.9 #19

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

ATL9.4 #8

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

ATL3.7 #29

LAC4.2 #22

ATL		LAC
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.10 #16	Points per possession	1.04 #27
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
32.8 #22	3-point %	38.6 #5
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
30.7 #1	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
9.4 #8	Steals per game	11.3 #3
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Hawks @ Clippers

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

Clippers

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

Clippers