Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 20, 7:30 PM ETRocket Arena · at Cavaliers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Cavaliers
CHI	This season	CLE
1-5	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	2-4
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 128–113 · win probability CLE 86%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 240.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

CHI 1, CLE 6 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

CLE offense vs CHI defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

CLEBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 47.9% and 43.6% of their shots

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHISmall

CHI offense vs CLE defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

CLESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, CLE 28.9. Allowed: CHI 33.5, CLE 23.2

CLESmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, CLE 14.1%

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, CLE 73.9%

Context

Tempo

About 108 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: CHI away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 22	vs SAC	L110–126LU
Mar 24	vs ORL	L103–127LU
Mar 25	@ MEM	L124–125LO

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 22	vs HOU	L100–117LU
Mar 25	vs LAL	L113–127LO
Mar 29	vs MIA	W149–128WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

CHI 6–14 CLECLE leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · CHI 11-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 19, 2025-26	CLE 115 @ CHI 110	CHI +9.5	CHI W
Dec 19, 2025-26	CHI 136 @ CLE 125	CLE -4.5	CHI W
Dec 17, 2025-26	CLE 111 @ CHI 127	CHI +5.5	CHI W
Nov 8, 2025-26	CHI 122 @ CLE 128	CLE -8.5	CHI W
Apr 8, 2024-25	CHI 113 @ CLE 135	CLE -15.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 1, Cavaliers 4, even 0

BullsBetterCavaliers

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

CHISmall

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

CLEBig

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

CLEBig

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

CLESmall

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

CLEBig

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

BullsBetterCavaliers

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

CHISmall

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

CLEBig

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

CLE121.0 #2

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

CLE1.14 #7

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

CLE106.2 #3

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

CLE55.3 #7

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

CLE37.0 #8

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

CLE43.6 #12

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

CLE28.9 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

CLE14.2 #6

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

CLE26.7 #20

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

CLE28.7 #4

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

CLE116.0 #20

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

CLE1.09 #14

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

CLE52.5 #12

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

CLE33.7 #11

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

CLE14.1 #25

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

CLE73.9 #11

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

CLE7.8 #22

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

CLE6.3 #6

CHI		CLE
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	121.0 #2
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.14 #7
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #3
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	55.3 #7
28.1 #30	3-point %	37.0 #8
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #12
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	28.9 #13
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	14.2 #6
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #20
24.3 #25	Assists per game	28.7 #4
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	116.0 #20
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #12
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #11
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	14.1 #25
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #11
8.7 #17	Steals per game	7.8 #22
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	6.3 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Cavaliers

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Cavaliers

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Cavaliers