Houston Rockets at Cleveland Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Mar 22, 7:00 PM ETRocket Arena · at Cavaliers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and Cavaliers
HOU	This season	CLE
6-1	Record	4-2
6-1	ATS	2-4
5-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 115–114 · win probability HOU 54%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 4, CLE 1 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

HOU offense vs CLE defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points

HOUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, CLE 73.9%

HOUSmall

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 38.1% and 43.6% of their shots

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, HOU 3-1 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5

Even

CLE offense vs HOU defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, CLE 14.1%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, CLE 28.9. Allowed: HOU 24.7, CLE 23.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: HOU away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 24	@ NY	W111–94WU
Mar 25	@ DET	W111–104WU
Mar 28	vs LAL	L78–98LU

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 25	vs LAL	L113–127LO
Mar 29	vs MIA	W149–128WO
Mar 31	@ BKN	W125–121LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

HOU 6–4 CLEHOU leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 5 meetings · HOU 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 27, 2025-26	CLE 100 @ HOU 117	HOU -2.5	HOU W
Nov 19, 2025-26	HOU 114 @ CLE 104	CLE +1.5	HOU W
Jan 25, 2024-25	HOU 135 @ CLE 131	CLE -4.5	HOU W
Jan 22, 2024-25	CLE 108 @ HOU 109	HOU -0.5	HOU W
Mar 16, 2023-24	CLE 103 @ HOU 117	HOU +4.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Rockets 1, Cavaliers 1, even 3

RocketsBetterCavaliers

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

Even

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

Even

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

Even

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

HOUBig

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

CLESmall

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

RocketsBetterCavaliers

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

HOUBig

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

Even

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

CLE121.0 #2

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

CLE1.14 #7

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

CLE106.2 #3

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

CLE55.3 #7

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

CLE37.0 #8

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

CLE43.6 #12

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

CLE28.9 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

CLE14.2 #6

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

CLE26.7 #20

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

CLE28.7 #4

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

CLE116.0 #20

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

CLE1.09 #14

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

CLE52.5 #12

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

CLE33.7 #11

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

CLE14.1 #25

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

CLE73.9 #11

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

CLE7.8 #22

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

CLE6.3 #6

HOU		CLE
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	121.0 #2
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.14 #7
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #3
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	55.3 #7
39.0 #3	3-point %	37.0 #8
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #12
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	28.9 #13
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	14.2 #6
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #20
28.1 #5	Assists per game	28.7 #4
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	116.0 #20
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #12
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #11
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	14.1 #25
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #11
9.7 #6	Steals per game	7.8 #22
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	6.3 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Cavaliers

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Cavaliers

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Cavaliers