Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 20, 7:00 PM ETKia Center · at Magic

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Magic
DEN	This season	ORL
3-2	Record	2-4
2-3	ATS	2-4
3-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 116–115 · win probability DEN 52%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

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model 231.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

DEN 4, ORL 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, ORL 13.6%

DENSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, ORL 68.9%

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, ORL 31.7. Allowed: DEN 21.5, ORL 29.8

DENSmall

DEN offense vs ORL defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Even

ORL offense vs DEN defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

Even

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 40.9% and 46.5% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: DEN away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 21	@ MIA	L123–147LO
Mar 24	@ WSH	W107–97WU
Mar 25	@ BKN	W107–103LO

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 22	vs IND	L126–128LO
Mar 24	@ CHI	W127–103WU
Mar 26	@ MIN	L93–115LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DEN 5–5 ORLSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · DEN 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 27, 2025-26	DEN 126 @ ORL 127	ORL +3.5	ORL W
Dec 18, 2025-26	ORL 115 @ DEN 126	DEN -6.5	DEN W
Feb 6, 2024-25	ORL 90 @ DEN 112	DEN -6.5	DEN W
Jan 19, 2024-25	DEN 113 @ ORL 100	ORL +7.5	DEN W
Jan 5, 2023-24	ORL 122 @ DEN 120	DEN -9.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 3, Magic 2, even 0

NuggetsBetterMagic

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

ORLSmall

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

DENBig

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

ORLSmall

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENBig

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

DENBig

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

NuggetsBetterMagic

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

DENSmall

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

Even

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

ORLSmall

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

ORL4.2 #23

DEN		ORL
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.07 #21
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
37.4 #7	3-point %	35.4 #11
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
26.8 #14	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
10.2 #5	Steals per game	7.0 #26
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Magic

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Magic

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Magic