Detroit Pistons at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Mar 22, 9:30 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pistons and Timberwolves
DET	This season	MIN
5-1	Record	4-3
5-1	ATS	6-1
2-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 114–109 · win probability MIN 63%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

DET 1, MIN 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINSmall

DET offense vs MIN defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, MIN 75.4%

DETSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DET 28.9, MIN 26.1. Allowed: DET 28.1, MIN 28.9

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, DET 3-1 away

MINSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

Even

Three-pointers

DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 43.3% and 42.8% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: DET 17.1%, MIN 15.6%

Even

MIN offense vs DET defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WWLWW	5-1	83%	3-1	—
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	—

Venue/role: DET away; MIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OUUUU	2-4	33%	5-1
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pistons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 24	@ CHA	W97–89WU
Mar 25	vs HOU	L104–111LU
Mar 27	vs SA	L106–121LU

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 24	vs DAL	W124–94WU
Mar 26	vs ORL	W115–93WU
Mar 28	vs OKC	L103–116LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DET 5–5 MINSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 2 meetings · DET 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 2, 2025-26	MIN 108 @ DET 113	DET -5.5	MIN W
Mar 28, 2025-26	DET 109 @ MIN 87	MIN +2.5	DET W
Mar 30, 2024-25	DET 104 @ MIN 123	MIN -8.5	MIN W
Jan 4, 2024-25	MIN 105 @ DET 119	DET +6.5	DET W
Mar 27, 2023-24	DET 91 @ MIN 106	MIN -15.5	DET W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pistons

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@BKN	W 110-94	-8.5	W +7.5	222.5	U 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

BKN

W 110-94

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

BKN

W 110-94

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Pistons 0, Timberwolves 2, even 3

PistonsBetterTimberwolves

G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47

Even

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79

Even

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77

MINSmall

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97

Even

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30

MINBig

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

PistonsBetterTimberwolves

DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6

MINSmall

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1

Even

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players

MINSmall

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench+22.1 · 5 players

DETBig

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDET betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pistons

Guards

C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min

Forwards

D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min

Centers

I. Jones5 min

Out

I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DET109.8 #21

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

DET1.09 #18

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

DET100.9 #29

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

DET53.1 #17

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

DET36.3 #9

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

DET43.3 #13

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

DET28.9 #14

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

DET15.6 #17

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

DET27.2 #17

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

DET26.7 #15

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

DET101.8 #1

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

DET1.01 #1

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

DET48.8 #2

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

DET32.5 #10

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

DET17.1 #6

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

DET72.8 #15

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

DET9.0 #12

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

DET6.7 #4

MIN4.3 #20

DET		MIN
Scoring
109.8 #21	Points per game	120.0 #6
1.09 #18	Points per possession	1.13 #8
100.9 #29	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
53.1 #17	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
36.3 #9	3-point %	37.6 #6
43.3 #13	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
28.9 #14	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
15.6 #17	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
27.2 #17	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
26.7 #15	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
101.8 #1	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.01 #1	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
48.8 #2	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
32.5 #10	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
17.1 #6	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
72.8 #15	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
9.0 #12	Steals per game	9.0 #13
6.7 #4	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nets110–94
Wvs Hornets97–89
L@ Knicks97–111
W@ 76ers106–93
W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Pistons @ Timberwolves

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pistons

Timberwolves

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pistons

Timberwolves