Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 16, 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Celtics
SAC	This season	BOS
0-6	Record	5-1
1-5	ATS	3-3
5-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 124–104 · win probability BOS 92%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

SAC 0, BOS 8 · 2026-27 so far

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SAC offense vs BOS defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

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Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

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Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 38.0% and 45.9% of their shots

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BOS offense vs SAC defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

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Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, BOS 17.8%

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Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

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Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, BOS 32.3. Allowed: SAC 31.2, BOS 31.7

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

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Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, BOS 68.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: SAC away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 17	@ NY	L87–103LU
Mar 19	@ TOR	W123–115WO
Mar 21	@ BKN	L99–116LU

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 18	vs ORL	W108–97WU
Mar 21	vs NO	W144–118WO
Mar 23	@ BKN	W125–124LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SAC 1–9 BOSBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 3 meetings · SAC 2-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 30, 2025-26	SAC 93 @ BOS 112	BOS -11.5	BOS W
Jan 1, 2025-26	BOS 120 @ SAC 106	SAC +10.5	BOS W
Mar 24, 2024-25	BOS 113 @ SAC 95	SAC +4.5	BOS W
Jan 10, 2024-25	SAC 114 @ BOS 97	BOS -12.5	SAC W
Apr 5, 2023-24	SAC 100 @ BOS 101	BOS -9.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Celtics 5, even 0

KingsBetterCeltics

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

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G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

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G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

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F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

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F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

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C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

KingsBetterCeltics

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

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BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

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BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

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Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

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Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

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Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

BOS4.0 #25

SAC		BOS
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.15 #6
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
30.4 #27	3-point %	35.5 #10
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
24.5 #23	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
8.0 #21	Steals per game	9.2 #9
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Celtics