Sacramento Kings at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Mar 21, 3:00 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Nets
SAC	This season	BKN
0-6	Record	1-5
1-5	ATS	3-3
5-1	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BKN 117–113 · win probability BKN 61%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

SAC 0, BKN 6 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BKNBig

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 38.0% and 48.0% of their shots

BKNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, BKN 77.8%

BKNSmall

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

BKNSmall

SAC offense vs BKN defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, SAC 0-4 away

BKNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, BKN 32.9. Allowed: SAC 31.2, BKN 33.5

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, BKN 15.9%

Even

BKN offense vs SAC defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: SAC away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 22	@ CHI	W126–110WU
Mar 24	vs ATL	L113–123WO
Mar 27	vs TOR	W123–115WO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 23	vs BOS	L124–125WO
Mar 25	vs DEN	L103–107WO
Mar 28	vs MEM	W126–115WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SAC 7–3 BKNSAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · SAC 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 29, 2025-26	SAC 99 @ BKN 116	BKN -1.5	BKN W
Mar 22, 2025-26	BKN 122 @ SAC 126	SAC -6.5	BKN W
Jan 27, 2024-25	SAC 110 @ BKN 96	BKN +12.5	SAC W
Nov 24, 2024-25	BKN 108 @ SAC 103	SAC -10.5	BKN W
Apr 7, 2023-24	SAC 107 @ BKN 77	BKN +10.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nets has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 1, Nets 2, even 2

KingsBetterNets

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

BKNSmall

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

SACSmall

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

Even

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

BKNBig

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

Even

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

KingsBetterNets

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

BKNSmall

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

Even

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

BKNSmall

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

BKNBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

SACBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

BKN4.7 #17

SAC		BKN
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.03 #29
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
30.4 #27	3-point %	35.1 #15
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
24.5 #23	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
8.0 #21	Steals per game	9.0 #14
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Nets

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Nets

Nets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Nets