Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 23, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Nets
BOS	This season	BKN
5-1	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 117–103 · win probability BOS 83%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 219.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

BOS 5, BKN 2 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

BKN offense vs BOS defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, BKN 15.9%

BKNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, BKN 77.8%

BOSSmall

BOS offense vs BKN defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSSmall

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 45.9% and 48.0% of their shots

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, BOS 1-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, BKN 32.9. Allowed: BOS 31.7, BKN 33.5

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: BOS away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 24	vs SA	L116–125LO
Mar 27	@ MIA	W147–129WO
Mar 28	@ NO	W144–118WO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 25	vs DEN	L103–107WO
Mar 28	vs MEM	W126–115WO
Mar 29	vs GS	L106–109WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22

BOS 22–3 BKNBOS leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 3 meetings · BOS 15-9-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 27, 2026-27	BKN 124 @ BOS 125	BOS -13.5	BKN W
Feb 27, 2025-26	BKN 111 @ BOS 148	BOS -16.5	BOS W
Jan 23, 2025-26	BOS 130 @ BKN 126	BKN +8.5	BKN W
Nov 21, 2025-26	BKN 113 @ BOS 105	BOS -13.5	BKN W
Nov 18, 2025-26	BOS 113 @ BKN 99	BKN +11.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 4, Nets 1, even 0

CelticsBetterNets

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSBig

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

BOSBig

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

BOSBig

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

BKNSmall

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

BOSBig

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

CelticsBetterNets

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

BOSSmall

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSBig

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

BKN4.7 #17

BOS		BKN
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.03 #29
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
35.5 #10	3-point %	35.1 #15
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
28.0 #6	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
9.2 #9	Steals per game	9.0 #14
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Nets

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Nets

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Nets