New Orleans Pelicans at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Mar 21, 3:00 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pelicans and Celtics
NO	This season	BOS
2-4	Record	5-1
4-2	ATS	3-3
4-2	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 120–109 · win probability BOS 79%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

NO 2, BOS 6 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: NO 16.3%, BOS 17.8%

BOSBig

BOS offense vs NO defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

BOSSmall

NO offense vs BOS defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

BOSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, NO 0-2 away

NOSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, BOS 68.4%

NOSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NO 35.3, BOS 32.3. Allowed: NO 30.6, BOS 31.7

BOSSmall

Three-pointers

NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 32.8% and 45.9% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Context

Schedule so far

NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-0	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: NO away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 23	@ NY	L116–121WO
Mar 26	@ DAL	W129–111WU
Mar 28	vs BOS	L118–144LO

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 23	@ BKN	W125–124LO
Mar 24	vs SA	L116–125LO
Mar 27	@ MIA	W147–129WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

NO 0–10 BOSBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 10 meetings · NO 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 10, 2025-26	NO 118 @ BOS 144	BOS -18.5	BOS W
Oct 27, 2025-26	BOS 122 @ NO 90	NO +4.5	BOS W
Jan 31, 2024-25	BOS 118 @ NO 116	NO +11.5	NO W
Jan 12, 2024-25	NO 119 @ BOS 120	BOS -14.5	NO W
Mar 30, 2023-24	BOS 104 @ NO 92	NO +5.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Pelicans 0, Celtics 2, even 3

PelicansBetterCeltics

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

BOSBig

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

BOSBig

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

Even

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

Even

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

Even

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

PelicansBetterCeltics

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

BOSSmall

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

BOSSmall

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNO betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NO119.7 #7

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

NO1.10 #15

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

NO108.0 #2

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

NO55.1 #9

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

NO31.2 #25

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

NO32.8 #30

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

NO35.3 #4

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

NO17.4 #26

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

NO24.3 #25

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

NO25.5 #21

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

NO117.8 #24

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

NO1.09 #16

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

NO54.2 #21

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

NO30.5 #5

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

NO16.3 #10

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

NO76.4 #6

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

NO13.7 #1

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

NO4.8 #16

BOS4.0 #25

NO		BOS
Scoring
119.7 #7	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.10 #15	Points per possession	1.15 #6
108.0 #2	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
55.1 #9	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
31.2 #25	3-point %	35.5 #10
32.8 #30	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
35.3 #4	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
17.4 #26	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
24.3 #25	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
25.5 #21	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
117.8 #24	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.09 #16	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
54.2 #21	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
30.5 #5	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
16.3 #10	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
76.4 #6	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
13.7 #1	Steals per game	9.2 #9
4.8 #16	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pelicans

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pelicans

Celtics