Toronto Raptors at Utah Jazz: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Mar 21, 5:00 PM ETDelta Center · at Jazz

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Jazz
TOR	This season	UTAH
3-3	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	1-5
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 119–111 · win probability TOR 72%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

TOR 4, UTAH 2 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, UTAH 13.3%

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

TORBig

TOR offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

TORBig

UTAH offense vs TOR defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, UTAH 77.1%

UTAHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: TOR 41.5, UTAH 33.8

UTAHSmall

Home court

UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, TOR 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 38.1% and 41.7% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-4	—

Venue/role: TOR away; UTAH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 23	@ POR	W110–98WU
Mar 25	@ GS	W145–127WO
Mar 27	@ SAC	L115–123LO

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 23	vs PHI	L116–126LO
Mar 25	@ MIA	W115–111WU
Mar 27	@ ATL	L119–121WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

TOR 5–5 UTAHSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · TOR has won the last 4 meetings · TOR 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 23, 2025-26	TOR 143 @ UTAH 127	UTAH +8.5	TOR W
Feb 1, 2025-26	UTAH 100 @ TOR 107	TOR -10.5	UTAH W
Mar 14, 2024-25	TOR 126 @ UTAH 118	UTAH -1.5	TOR W
Mar 7, 2024-25	UTAH 109 @ TOR 118	TOR -5.5	TOR W
Jan 12, 2023-24	TOR 113 @ UTAH 145	UTAH -1.5	UTAH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 4, Jazz 0, even 1

RaptorsBetterJazz

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

TORSmall

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

TORBig

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

TORBig

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

Even

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

TORSmall

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

RaptorsBetterJazz

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

TORBig

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

TORBig

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

TORBig

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Even

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

UTAH108.7 #24

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

UTAH1.05 #25

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

UTAH104.0 #12

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

UTAH51.0 #24

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

UTAH32.6 #23

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

UTAH41.7 #21

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

UTAH31.6 #10

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

UTAH17.0 #25

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

UTAH25.7 #22

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

UTAH26.2 #19

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

UTAH118.8 #25

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

UTAH1.14 #25

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

UTAH53.9 #18

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

UTAH37.6 #25

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

UTAH13.3 #28

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

UTAH77.1 #4

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

UTAH6.2 #29

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

UTAH6.5 #5

TOR		UTAH
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	108.7 #24
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.05 #25
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	104.0 #12
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	51.0 #24
32.0 #24	3-point %	32.6 #23
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #21
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	31.6 #10
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	17.0 #25
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	25.7 #22
29.2 #2	Assists per game	26.2 #19
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	118.8 #25
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #25
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #18
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #25
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	13.3 #28
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	77.1 #4
12.7 #2	Steals per game	6.2 #29
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	6.5 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Jazz

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Jazz

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Jazz