Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Mar 21, 5:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Trail Blazers and Suns
POR	This season	PHX
4-1	Record	1-3
3-2	ATS	0-4
2-3	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 117–112 · win probability POR 64%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

POR 7, PHX 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

PORBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: POR 35.9, PHX 22.8. Allowed: POR 27.8, PHX 31.1

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Shooting

Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

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Three-pointers

POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 51.5% and 45.1% of their shots

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Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, PHX 65.1%

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POR offense vs PHX defense

Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

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Recent form

Last 4: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

PORSmall

PHX offense vs POR defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, POR 3-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: POR 14.8%, PHX 17.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
POR WLWLW	3-2	60%	2-1	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: POR away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
POR UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PORlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Trail Blazers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 23	vs TOR	L98–110LU
Mar 26	vs PHI	L103–109LU
Mar 27	vs MIL	W130–99WO

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 23	vs OKC	L114–125LO
Mar 24	vs OKC	L114–125LO
Mar 26	vs MIL	L105–108LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

POR 9–11 PHXPHX leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · POR has won the last 3 meetings · POR 12-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 21, 2026-27	PHX 83 @ POR 124	POR -3.5	POR W
Apr 14, 2025-26	POR 114 @ PHX 110	PHX -2.5	POR W
Feb 22, 2025-26	POR 92 @ PHX 77	PHX +3.5	POR W
Feb 3, 2025-26	PHX 130 @ POR 125	POR +2.5	PHX W
Nov 18, 2025-26	PHX 127 @ POR 110	POR -2.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Trail Blazers

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsPHX	W 124-83	-3.5	W +37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 23	@SAC	W 128-120	-9.5	L −1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 27	@LAL	W 136-129	+1.5	W +8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 29	vsMEM	L 103-124	-7.5	L −28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	@UTAH	W 112-90	-6.5	W +15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

+37.5

SAC

W 128-120

−1.5

LAL

W 136-129

+8.5

MEM

L 103-124

−28.5

UTAH

W 112-90

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHX

W 124-83

−25.5

SAC

W 128-120

+16.5

LAL

W 136-129

+30.5

MEM

L 103-124

−6.5

UTAH

W 112-90

−30.5

over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Position by position: Trail Blazers 3, Suns 1, even 1

Trail BlazersBetterSuns

G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89

Even

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34

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G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82

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F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

PHXSmall

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74

PORBig

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

Trail BlazersBetterSuns

POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4

PORBig

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8

PORSmall

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players

PORSmall

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players

PORBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench+15.6 · 5 players

PORBig

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPOR betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Trail Blazers

Guards

D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min

Forwards

D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min

Centers

D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min

Out

J. MorantOut

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

POR120.6 #4

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

POR1.16 #5

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

POR103.5 #14

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

POR56.2 #4

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

POR35.3 #12

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

POR51.5 #1

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

POR35.9 #3

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

POR14.6 #9

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

POR27.6 #14

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

POR26.2 #17

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

POR109.2 #10

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

POR1.06 #10

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

POR51.3 #8

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

POR32.1 #8

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

POR14.8 #20

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

POR77.3 #3

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

POR8.6 #18

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

POR4.2 #21

PHX5.3 #10

POR		PHX
Scoring
120.6 #4	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.16 #5	Points per possession	1.12 #12
103.5 #14	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
56.2 #4	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
35.3 #12	3-point %	35.0 #16
51.5 #1	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
35.9 #3	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
14.6 #9	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
27.6 #14	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
26.2 #17	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
109.2 #10	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.06 #10	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
51.3 #8	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
32.1 #8	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
14.8 #20	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
77.3 #3	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
8.6 #18	Steals per game	9.0 #15
4.2 #21	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Jazz112–90
Lvs Grizzlies103–124
W@ Lakers136–129
W@ Kings128–120
Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers @ Suns

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Trail Blazers

Suns

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Trail Blazers

Suns