Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 17, 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at Knicks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Knicks
SAC	This season	NY
0-6	Record	2-4
1-5	ATS	1-5
5-1	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 122–104 · win probability NY 90%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

SAC 0, NY 7 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

SAC offense vs NY defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, NY 78.7%

NYBig

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 38.0% and 43.2% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points

NYSmall

NY offense vs SAC defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

NYSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1

NYSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, NY 24.5. Allowed: SAC 31.2, NY 25.9

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NYSmall

Home court

NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, NY 15.2%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, NY 13.2%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	—

Venue/role: SAC away; NY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 19	@ TOR	W123–115WO
Mar 21	@ BKN	L99–116LU
Mar 22	@ CHI	W126–110WU

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 20	vs WSH	W145–113WO
Mar 23	vs NO	W121–116LO
Mar 24	vs HOU	L94–111LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SAC 2–8 NYNY leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · SAC 2-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 27, 2025-26	SAC 87 @ NY 103	NY -14.5	NY W
Jan 14, 2025-26	NY 101 @ SAC 112	SAC +10.5	SAC W
Mar 10, 2024-25	NY 133 @ SAC 104	SAC +1.5	NY W
Jan 25, 2024-25	SAC 120 @ NY 143	NY -4.5	NY W
Apr 4, 2023-24	SAC 109 @ NY 120	NY -3.5	NY W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Knicks 5, even 0

KingsBetterKnicks

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

NYBig

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

NYBig

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

NYBig

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

NYBig

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

NYBig

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

KingsBetterKnicks

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

NYBig

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

NYSmall

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

NYBig

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

NYBig

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

NY107.0 #27

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

NY1.05 #24

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

NY101.0 #28

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

NY49.5 #27

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

NY35.2 #13

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

NY43.2 #14

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

NY24.5 #23

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

NY15.2 #14

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

NY30.3 #6

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

NY26.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

NY107.7 #6

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

NY1.07 #12

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

NY53.1 #14

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

NY35.5 #18

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

NY13.2 #29

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

NY78.7 #1

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

NY7.3 #23

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

NY4.0 #28

SAC		NY
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	107.0 #27
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.05 #24
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	101.0 #28
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	49.5 #27
30.4 #27	3-point %	35.2 #13
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	43.2 #14
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	24.5 #23
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	15.2 #14
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #6
24.5 #23	Assists per game	26.2 #18
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	107.7 #6
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #12
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #14
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #18
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	13.2 #29
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	78.7 #1
8.0 #21	Steals per game	7.3 #23
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	4.0 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Knicks

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Knicks

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Knicks