Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 17, 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and 76ers
CHI	This season	PHI
1-5	Record	6-1
3-3	ATS	4-3
2-4	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 122–110 · win probability PHI 80%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

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model 232.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

CHI 1, PHI 5 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, PHI 17.0%

PHIBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 47.9% and 39.5% of their shots

PHIBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

CHIBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, PHI 70.8%

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

PHISmall

PHI offense vs CHI defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

CHI offense vs PHI defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, PHI 28.7. Allowed: CHI 33.5, PHI 28.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: CHI away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 20	@ CLE	L110–115WU
Mar 22	vs SAC	L110–126LU
Mar 24	vs ORL	L103–127LU

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 18	@ WSH	W153–131WO
Mar 21	vs SA	L102–115LU
Mar 23	@ UTAH	W126–116WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

CHI 8–10 PHIPHI leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · CHI 7-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 25, 2025-26	CHI 137 @ PHI 157	PHI -6.5	PHI W
Dec 26, 2025-26	PHI 102 @ CHI 109	CHI +1.5	CHI W
Nov 4, 2025-26	PHI 111 @ CHI 113	CHI -2.5	PHI W
Apr 13, 2024-25	CHI 122 @ PHI 102	PHI +7.5	CHI W
Feb 24, 2024-25	CHI 142 @ PHI 110	PHI -5.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 0, 76ers 3, even 2

BullsBetter76ers

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

Even

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

Even

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

PHIBig

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

PHIBig

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

PHIBig

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

BullsBetter76ers

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Even

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

PHISmall

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

CHIBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

PHI5.0 #14

CHI		PHI
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.06 #22
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
28.1 #30	3-point %	34.0 #20
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
24.3 #25	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
8.7 #17	Steals per game	9.6 #7
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ 76ers

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

76ers

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

76ers