Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 18, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Wizards
PHI	This season	WSH
6-1	Record	3-3
4-3	ATS	3-3
2-5	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 114–111 · win probability PHI 59%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

PHI 2, WSH 3 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

WSH offense vs PHI defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, WSH 13.3%

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, WSH 34.2. Allowed: PHI 28.5, WSH 21.8

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, PHI 3-0 away

WSHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, WSH 68.0%

Even

PHI offense vs WSH defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 39.5% and 37.6% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: PHI away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 21	vs SA	L102–115LU
Mar 23	@ UTAH	W126–116WO
Mar 24	@ GS	W113–94WU

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 20	@ NY	L113–145LO
Mar 22	@ MIL	W128–116WO
Mar 24	vs DEN	L97–107LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

PHI 13–5 WSHPHI leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 5 meetings · PHI 11-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 1, 2025-26	PHI 153 @ WSH 131	WSH +14.5	PHI W
Jan 7, 2025-26	WSH 110 @ PHI 131	PHI -16.5	PHI W
Dec 2, 2025-26	WSH 102 @ PHI 121	PHI -13.5	PHI W
Oct 28, 2025-26	PHI 139 @ WSH 134	WSH +4.5	PHI W
Apr 9, 2024-25	PHI 122 @ WSH 103	WSH +2.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 3, Wizards 0, even 2

76ersBetterWizards

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

PHIBig

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

PHISmall

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

Even

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

PHISmall

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

76ersBetterWizards

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Even

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

PHIBig

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

PHISmall

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

WSHBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

WSH5.3 #9

PHI		WSH
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.08 #19
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
34.0 #20	3-point %	29.3 #29
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
25.1 #22	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
9.6 #7	Steals per game	7.2 #24
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Wizards

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Wizards

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Wizards