Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 18, 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Pacers
TOR	This season	IND
3-3	Record	2-5
3-3	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 118–111 · win probability TOR 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

TOR 4, IND 2 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

IND offense vs TOR defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, IND 72.7%

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, IND 14.8%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, IND 14.9%

TORBig

TOR offense vs IND defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

INDSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, IND 31.2. Allowed: TOR 41.5, IND 32.1

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, TOR 1-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 38.1% and 43.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

Even

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: TOR away; IND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 19	vs SAC	L115–123LO
Mar 21	@ UTAH	W143–127WO
Mar 23	@ POR	W110–98WU

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 20	@ MIL	L102–110LU
Mar 22	@ ORL	W128–126WO
Mar 24	vs MEM	L106–125LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

TOR 11–7 INDTOR leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · TOR has won the last 4 meetings · TOR 11-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 8, 2025-26	IND 104 @ TOR 122	TOR -7.5	TOR W
Jan 14, 2025-26	TOR 115 @ IND 101	IND -1.5	TOR W
Nov 26, 2025-26	IND 95 @ TOR 97	TOR -9.5	IND W
Nov 15, 2025-26	TOR 129 @ IND 111	IND +6.5	TOR W
Feb 26, 2024-25	TOR 91 @ IND 111	IND -11.5	IND W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 2, Pacers 1, even 2

RaptorsBetterPacers

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

INDBig

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

TORSmall

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

Even

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

Even

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

TORBig

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

RaptorsBetterPacers

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

TORBig

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

TORBig

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

INDBig

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

IND112.9 #18

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

IND1.10 #17

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

IND103.1 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

IND53.9 #14

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

IND34.1 #18

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

IND43.1 #15

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

IND31.2 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

IND14.8 #10

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

IND23.1 #27

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

IND28.0 #7

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

IND116.7 #23

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

IND1.13 #23

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

IND53.9 #19

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

IND35.9 #20

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

IND14.9 #19

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

IND72.7 #16

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

IND6.9 #27

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

IND4.0 #26

TOR		IND
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	112.9 #18
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.10 #17
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
32.0 #24	3-point %	34.1 #18
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
29.2 #2	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
12.7 #2	Steals per game	6.9 #27
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Pacers

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Pacers

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Pacers