Sacramento Kings at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Mar 19, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Raptors
SAC	This season	TOR
0-6	Record	3-3
1-5	ATS	3-3
5-1	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 124–107 · win probability TOR 88%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

SAC 0, TOR 7 · 2026-27 so far

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Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, TOR 20.8%

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SAC offense vs TOR defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

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TOR offense vs SAC defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

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Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, TOR 73.4%

TORSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

TORSmall

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 38.0% and 38.1% of their shots

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, TOR 27.7. Allowed: SAC 31.2, TOR 41.5

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: SAC away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 21	@ BKN	L99–116LU
Mar 22	@ CHI	W126–110WU
Mar 24	vs ATL	L113–123WO

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 21	@ UTAH	W143–127WO
Mar 23	@ POR	W110–98WU
Mar 25	@ GS	W145–127WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SAC 5–5 TORSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · SAC 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 1, 2025-26	SAC 123 @ TOR 115	TOR -12.5	SAC W
Jan 21, 2025-26	TOR 122 @ SAC 109	SAC +5.5	TOR W
Nov 6, 2024-25	TOR 107 @ SAC 122	SAC -11.5	SAC W
Nov 2, 2024-25	SAC 128 @ TOR 131	TOR +9.5	TOR W
Mar 20, 2023-24	SAC 123 @ TOR 89	TOR +11.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Raptors 5, even 0

KingsBetterRaptors

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

TORSmall

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

TORBig

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

TORSmall

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

TORBig

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

TORBig

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

KingsBetterRaptors

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

TORBig

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

TORBig

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

TORBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

TOR4.3 #19

SAC		TOR
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.11 #13
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
30.4 #27	3-point %	32.0 #24
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
24.5 #23	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
8.0 #21	Steals per game	12.7 #2
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Raptors

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Raptors

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Raptors