Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 18, 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Magic and Celtics
ORL	This season	BOS
2-4	Record	5-1
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 116–106 · win probability BOS 76%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

ORL 0, BOS 5 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

ORL has played the 1st-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORL 17.0%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: ORL 13.6%, BOS 17.8%

BOSBig

ORL offense vs BOS defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORL 23.4%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: ORL 68.9%, BOS 68.4%

BOSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, ORL 2-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: ORL plays 101.9 a game (22nd fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORL 31.7, BOS 32.3. Allowed: ORL 29.8, BOS 31.7

Even

Three-pointers

ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 46.5% and 45.9% of their shots

Even

BOS offense vs ORL defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORL 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: ORL 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: ORL away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 20	vs DEN	W127–126WO
Mar 22	vs IND	L126–128LO
Mar 24	@ CHI	W127–103WU

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 21	vs NO	W144–118WO
Mar 23	@ BKN	W125–124LO
Mar 24	vs SA	L116–125LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 23 since 2021-22

ORL 8–15 BOSBOS leads · 23 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 4 meetings · ORL 11-12 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 1, 2026-27	BOS 108 @ ORL 97	ORL +6.5	BOS W
Apr 12, 2025-26	ORL 108 @ BOS 113	BOS +12.5	BOS W
Nov 23, 2025-26	ORL 129 @ BOS 138	BOS -4.5	BOS W
Nov 9, 2025-26	BOS 111 @ ORL 107	ORL -3.5	BOS W
Nov 7, 2025-26	BOS 110 @ ORL 123	ORL -3.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Magic 0, Celtics 4, even 1

MagicBetterCeltics

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

BOSSmall

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

BOSBig

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

Even

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

BOSSmall

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

BOSSmall

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

MagicBetterCeltics

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

BOSBig

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

Even

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestORL betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORL107.7 #26

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

ORL1.07 #21

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

ORL101.9 #22

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORL53.4 #15

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

ORL35.4 #11

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

ORL46.5 #6

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

ORL31.7 #9

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORL17.0 #24

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

ORL23.4 #26

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

ORL26.3 #16

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

ORL116.7 #22

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

ORL1.13 #24

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

ORL53.0 #13

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

ORL34.6 #13

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

ORL13.6 #26

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

ORL68.9 #26

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

ORL7.0 #26

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

ORL4.2 #23

BOS4.0 #25

ORL		BOS
Scoring
107.7 #26	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.07 #21	Points per possession	1.15 #6
101.9 #22	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
53.4 #15	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
35.4 #11	3-point %	35.5 #10
46.5 #6	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
31.7 #9	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
17.0 #24	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
23.4 #26	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
26.3 #16	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
116.7 #22	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.13 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
53.0 #13	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
34.6 #13	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
13.6 #26	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
68.9 #26	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
7.0 #26	Steals per game	9.2 #9
4.2 #23	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Magic @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Magic

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Magic

Celtics