Fiserv Forum · at Bucks · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 DET | This season | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 1-5 |
| 5-1 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 5-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DET 118–106 · win probability DET 81%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 224.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DET has more of the edges
DET 7, MIL 2 · 2026-27 so far
DETBigMIL offense vs DET defense
Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
DETBigShooting
Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4
DETBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: DET 17.1%, MIL 12.2%
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points
DETBigDET offense vs MIL defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings
DETSmallThree-pointers
DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 43.3% and 45.9% of their shots
DETSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: DET 28.9, MIL 23.9. Allowed: DET 28.1, MIL 29.7
MILSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, MIL 74.2%
Context
Schedule so far
DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETSmallRecent form
Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4
MILSmallHome court
MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, DET 3-1 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -12.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model224.8
Model edge—
Projected score
DET 118.4 · MIL 106.4
Win probability
DET 81%
1st half
Spread
DET -7.0
Total
112.7
Projected score
DET 59.8 · MIL 52.9
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DETlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 5-1 83% | 2-4 33% |
| MILlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% | 5-1 83% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22
DET 4–16 MILMIL leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 2 meetings · DET 9-11 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025-26 | MIL 111 @ DET 137 | DET -22.5 | DET W |
| Dec 6, 2025-26 | MIL 112 @ DET 124 | DET -12.5 | MIL W |
| Dec 3, 2025-26 | DET 109 @ MIL 113 | MIL +4.5 | MIL W |
| Nov 22, 2025-26 | DET 129 @ MIL 116 | MIL +7.5 | DET W |
| Apr 13, 2024-25 | DET 133 @ MIL 140 | MIL +9.5 | MIL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pistons
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
BOS
BOSW 121-113
+9.5
23
@
MIA
MIAW 128-111
+14.5
25
@
PHI
PHIW 106-93
+11.5
27
@
NY
NYL 97-111
−9.5
28
vs
CHA
CHAW 97-89
+0.5
30
@
BKN
BKNW 110-94
+7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsBOS
BOSW 121-113
+13.5
23
@MIA
MIAW 128-111
+3.5
25
@PHI
PHIW 106-93
−29.5
27
@NY
NYL 97-111
−12.5
28
vsCHA
CHAW 97-89
−26.5
30
@BKN
BKNW 110-94
−18.5
over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Bucks
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-1
83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
WSH
WSHL 116-128
−7.5
23
vs
CHI
CHIL 125-132
−8.5
24
@PHI
PHIL 116-127
+1.5
26
vs
IND
INDW 110-102
+11.5
28
vs
HOU
HOUL 100-132
−23.5
31
vs
CLE
CLEL 111-136
−16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@WSH
WSHL 116-128
+4.5
23
vsCHI
CHIL 125-132
+15.5
24
@PHI
PHIL 116-127
+8.5
26
vsIND
INDW 110-102
−27.5
28
vsHOU
HOUL 100-132
+5.5
31
vsCLE
CLEL 111-136
+12.5
over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pistons has the better starters
Position by position: Pistons 4, Bucks 1, even 0
PistonsBetterBucks
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast
Score 47
←DETBig
G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast
Score 6
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast
Score 79
←DETBig
G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast
Score 2
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 77
←DETSmall
F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast
Score 51
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast
Score 97
←DETBig
F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 31
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 30
→MILSmall
C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 56
PistonsBetterBucks
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
←DETBig
MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
←DETBig
MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
←DETBig
Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
←DETBig
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
←DETBig
Bench-0.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDET betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
PistonsGuards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
BucksGuards
T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min
Forwards
J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min
Centers
M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
DET109.8 #21MIL113.0 #17Points per possession
DET1.09 #18MIL1.07 #20Pace (possessions)
DET100.9 #29MIL106.2 #4Shooting
Effective FG%
DET53.1 #17MIL52.0 #213-point %
DET36.3 #9MIL33.9 #213-point attempt rate
DET43.3 #13MIL45.9 #8Free throw rate
DET28.9 #14MIL23.9 #25Possessions
Turnover rate
DET15.6 #17MIL15.8 #18Offensive rebound rate
DET27.2 #17MIL29.7 #8Assists per game
DET26.7 #15MIL26.0 #20Defense
Points allowed
DET101.8 #1MIL126.2 #28Points allowed per possession
DET1.01 #1MIL1.18 #28Opponent effective FG%
DET48.8 #2MIL55.4 #24Opponent 3-point %
DET32.5 #10MIL34.9 #14Turnovers forced
DET17.1 #6MIL12.2 #30Defensive rebound rate
DET72.8 #15MIL74.2 #10Steals per game
DET9.0 #12MIL5.7 #30Blocks per game
DET6.7 #4MIL4.0 #27| DET | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 109.8 #21 | Points per game | 113.0 #17 |
| 1.09 #18 | Points per possession | 1.07 #20 |
| 100.9 #29 | Pace (possessions) | 106.2 #4 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.1 #17 | Effective FG% | 52.0 #21 |
| 36.3 #9 | 3-point % | 33.9 #21 |
| 43.3 #13 | 3-point attempt rate | 45.9 #8 |
| 28.9 #14 | Free throw rate | 23.9 #25 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.6 #17 | Turnover rate | 15.8 #18 |
| 27.2 #17 | Offensive rebound rate | 29.7 #8 |
| 26.7 #15 | Assists per game | 26.0 #20 |
| Defense | ||
| 101.8 #1 | Points allowed | 126.2 #28 |
| 1.01 #1 | Points allowed per possession | 1.18 #28 |
| 48.8 #2 | Opponent effective FG% | 55.4 #24 |
| 32.5 #10 | Opponent 3-point % | 34.9 #14 |
| 17.1 #6 | Turnovers forced | 12.2 #30 |
| 72.8 #15 | Defensive rebound rate | 74.2 #10 |
| 9.0 #12 | Steals per game | 5.7 #30 |
| 6.7 #4 | Blocks per game | 4.0 #27 |
Pistons
5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Nets110–94
- Wvs Hornets97–89
- L@ Knicks97–111
- W@ 76ers106–93
- W@ Heat128–111
A week or more of rest.
Bucks
1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Cavaliers111–136
- Lvs Rockets100–132
- Wvs Pacers110–102
- L@ 76ers116–127
- Lvs Bulls125–132
A week or more of rest.