Charlotte Hornets at New Orleans Pelicans: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 18, 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · at Pelicans

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Pelicans
CHA	This season	NO
3-4	Record	2-4
3-4	ATS	4-2
1-6	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NO 113–111 · win probability NO 57%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

CHA 2, NO 7 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points

NOBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 50.8% and 32.8% of their shots

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, NO 76.4%

NOBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, NO 35.3. Allowed: CHA 28.4, NO 30.6

NOSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, NO 17.4%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, NO 16.3%

CHASmall

NO offense vs CHA defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

NOSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NOSmall

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8

NOSmall

CHA offense vs NO defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

NOSmall

Home court

NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-2	—

Venue/role: CHA away; NO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 20	@ DET	L89–97LU
Mar 22	@ MEM	W124–101WU
Mar 24	vs DET	L89–97LU

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 19	vs HOU	L102–134LO
Mar 21	@ BOS	L118–144LO
Mar 23	@ NY	L116–121WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHA 4–6 NONO leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHA 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 2, 2025-26	NO 95 @ CHA 102	CHA -6.5	CHA W
Nov 4, 2025-26	CHA 112 @ NO 116	NO -3.5	NO W
Mar 30, 2024-25	CHA 94 @ NO 98	NO -2.5	NO W
Jan 25, 2024-25	NO 92 @ CHA 123	CHA +2.5	CHA W
Jan 17, 2023-24	CHA 112 @ NO 132	NO -12.5	NO W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pelicans has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 1, Pelicans 2, even 2

HornetsBetterPelicans

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

NOSmall

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

CHABig

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

Even

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

Even

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

NOBig

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

HornetsBetterPelicans

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

NOSmall

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHASmall

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

CHASmall

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

NOBig

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

CHABig

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

NO119.7 #7

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

NO1.10 #15

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

NO108.0 #2

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

NO55.1 #9

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

NO31.2 #25

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

NO32.8 #30

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

NO35.3 #4

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

NO17.4 #26

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

NO24.3 #25

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

NO25.5 #21

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

NO117.8 #24

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

NO1.09 #16

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

NO54.2 #21

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

NO30.5 #5

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

NO16.3 #10

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

NO76.4 #6

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

NO13.7 #1

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

NO4.8 #16

CHA		NO
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	119.7 #7
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.10 #15
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	108.0 #2
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	55.1 #9
29.6 #28	3-point %	31.2 #25
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #30
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	35.3 #4
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	17.4 #26
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	24.3 #25
21.6 #30	Assists per game	25.5 #21
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	117.8 #24
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #16
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #21
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #5
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	16.3 #10
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	76.4 #6
7.1 #25	Steals per game	13.7 #1
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	4.8 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Pelicans

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Pelicans

Pelicans has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Pelicans