New York Knicks at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 16, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Knicks and Wizards
NY	This season	WSH
2-4	Record	3-3
1-5	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 116–108 · win probability NY 71%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

NY 2, WSH 4 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, WSH 68.0%

NYBig

WSH offense vs NY defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, WSH 34.2. Allowed: NY 25.9, WSH 21.8

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, NY 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

WSHSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: NY 13.2%, WSH 13.3%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 43.2% and 37.6% of their shots

Even

NY offense vs WSH defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: NY away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 17	vs SAC	W103–87WU
Mar 20	vs WSH	W145–113WO
Mar 23	vs NO	W121–116LO

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 18	vs PHI	L131–153LO
Mar 20	@ NY	L113–145LO
Mar 22	@ MIL	W128–116WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

NY 15–2 WSHNY leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · NY has won the last 12 meetings · NY 11-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 22, 2025-26	WSH 113 @ NY 145	NY -22.5	NY W
Feb 3, 2025-26	NY 132 @ WSH 101	WSH +12.5	NY W
Nov 3, 2025-26	WSH 102 @ NY 119	NY -13.5	NY W
Mar 22, 2024-25	WSH 103 @ NY 122	NY -15.5	NY W
Dec 30, 2024-25	NY 126 @ WSH 106	WSH +12.5	NY W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 3, Wizards 0, even 2

KnicksBetterWizards

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

NYBig

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

NYBig

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

Even

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

NYBig

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

KnicksBetterWizards

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Even

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

NYBig

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

NYBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NY107.0 #27

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

NY1.05 #24

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

NY101.0 #28

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

NY49.5 #27

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

NY35.2 #13

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

NY43.2 #14

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

NY24.5 #23

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

NY15.2 #14

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

NY30.3 #6

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

NY26.2 #18

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

NY107.7 #6

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

NY1.07 #12

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

NY53.1 #14

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

NY35.5 #18

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

NY13.2 #29

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

NY78.7 #1

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

NY7.3 #23

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

NY4.0 #28

WSH5.3 #9

NY		WSH
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.05 #24	Points per possession	1.08 #19
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
35.2 #13	3-point %	29.3 #29
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
26.2 #18	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
7.3 #23	Steals per game	7.2 #24
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ Wizards

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

Wizards

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

Wizards