Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Mar 15, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Nets
IND	This season	BKN
2-5	Record	1-5
3-4	ATS	3-3
3-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IND 114–113 · win probability IND 53%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

IND 3, BKN 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BKNBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, BKN 77.8%

INDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

INDSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: IND 14.9%, BKN 15.9%

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, IND 2-2 away

INDSmall

BKN offense vs IND defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

Even

IND offense vs BKN defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, BKN 32.9. Allowed: IND 32.1, BKN 33.5

Even

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 43.1% and 48.0% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: IND away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 16	vs DET	L121–133WO
Mar 18	vs TOR	L104–122LU
Mar 20	@ MIL	L102–110LU

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 17	@ HOU	L96–120LU
Mar 18	@ SA	L110–126LO
Mar 21	vs SAC	W116–99WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

IND 10–9 BKNIND leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · IND 12-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 1, 2026-27	BKN 98 @ IND 90	IND -3.5	BKN W
Oct 25, 2026-27	IND 136 @ BKN 109	BKN +5.5	IND W
Apr 9, 2025-26	IND 123 @ BKN 94	BKN +3.5	IND W
Feb 11, 2025-26	IND 115 @ BKN 110	BKN -6.5	IND W
Nov 5, 2025-26	BKN 112 @ IND 103	IND -6.5	BKN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pacers has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 3, Nets 1, even 1

PacersBetterNets

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

INDBig

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

INDSmall

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

INDSmall

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

BKNSmall

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

Even

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

PacersBetterNets

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Even

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

Even

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

INDBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

BKNBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

BKNBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

BKN4.7 #17

IND		BKN
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.03 #29
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
34.1 #18	3-point %	35.1 #15
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
28.0 #7	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
6.9 #27	Steals per game	9.0 #14
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ Nets

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Nets

Pacers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Nets