Brooklyn Nets at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 17, 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Rockets
BKN	This season	HOU
1-5	Record	6-1
3-3	ATS	6-1
3-3	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 120–102 · win probability HOU 91%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 221.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

BKN 0, HOU 8 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

BKN offense vs HOU defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

HOUBig

HOU offense vs BKN defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 48.0% and 38.1% of their shots

HOUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, HOU 31.9. Allowed: BKN 33.5, HOU 24.7

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

HOUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, HOU 15.7%

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Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, BKN 1-2 away

HOUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, HOU 73.2%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	—

Venue/role: BKN away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 18	@ SA	L110–126LO
Mar 21	vs SAC	W116–99WU
Mar 23	vs BOS	L124–125WO

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 19	@ NO	W134–102WO
Mar 22	@ CLE	W117–100WU
Mar 24	@ NY	W111–94WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BKN 6–4 HOUBKN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings · BKN 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 1, 2025-26	HOU 120 @ BKN 96	BKN +13.5	HOU W
Oct 27, 2025-26	BKN 109 @ HOU 137	HOU -15.5	HOU W
Feb 4, 2024-25	HOU 97 @ BKN 99	BKN +8.5	BKN W
Feb 1, 2024-25	BKN 110 @ HOU 98	HOU -12.5	BKN W
Jan 27, 2023-24	HOU 104 @ BKN 106	BKN -4.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 0, Rockets 4, even 1

NetsBetterRockets

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

HOUBig

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

HOUBig

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

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F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

Even

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

HOUBig

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

NetsBetterRockets

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

HOUBig

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

HOUBig

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

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Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

HOU5.9 #8

BKN		HOU
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	120.7 #3
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.20 #1
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
35.1 #15	3-point %	39.0 #3
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
22.8 #28	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
9.0 #14	Steals per game	9.7 #6
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Rockets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Rockets