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NBA · Wed, Mar 17

Hawks @ Jazz

Delta Center · at Jazz
#14ATLHawks
@
#26UTAHJazz
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ATLThis seasonUTAH
3-4Record1-5
3-4ATS1-5
4-3O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 120–114 · win probability ATL 66%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 234.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

ATL 3, UTAH 3 · 2026-27 so far
ATLBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, UTAH 13.3%
ATLBig
ATL offense vs UTAH defense
Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
ATLBig
Three-pointers
ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 44.7% and 41.7% of their shots
UTAHSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: ATL 32.1, UTAH 33.8
UTAHSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, UTAH 77.1%
Context
Schedule so far
ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UTAHSmall
Home court
UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, ATL 2-2 away
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points
Even
UTAH offense vs ATL defense
Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9
Even
Recent form
Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelATL -5.9
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model234.7
Model edge—
Projected score
ATL 120.3 · UTAH 114.4
Win probability
ATL 66%
1st half
Spread
ATL -3.5
Total
117.3
Projected score
ATL 60.4 · UTAH 56.9
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 3, Jazz 1, even 1
HawksBetterJazz
G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67
ATLBig
G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8
G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87
ATLBig
G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11
G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59
ATLBig
G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17
G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78
UTAHSmall
F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94
F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30
Even
C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36
HawksBetterJazz
ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5
ATLBig
UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0
ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6
Even
UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2
Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players
ATLBig
Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
UTAHBig
Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
UTAHBig
Bench+2.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestATL betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Hawks
Guards
N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min
Forwards
O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min
Out
J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension
Jazz
Guards
K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min
Forwards
L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min
Centers
J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min
Out
J. JacksonOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ATLUTAH
Scoring
116.3 #13Points per game108.7 #24
1.10 #16Points per possession1.05 #25
105.6 #7Pace (possessions)104.0 #12
Shooting
52.6 #19Effective FG%51.0 #24
32.8 #223-point %32.6 #23
44.7 #113-point attempt rate41.7 #21
23.4 #26Free throw rate31.6 #10
Possessions
13.8 #4Turnover rate17.0 #25
27.1 #18Offensive rebound rate25.7 #22
30.7 #1Assists per game26.2 #19
Defense
115.4 #19Points allowed118.8 #25
1.10 #17Points allowed per possession1.14 #25
54.5 #22Opponent effective FG%53.9 #18
31.9 #7Opponent 3-point %37.6 #25
18.3 #2Turnovers forced13.3 #28
70.9 #19Defensive rebound rate77.1 #4
9.4 #8Steals per game6.2 #29
3.7 #29Blocks per game6.5 #5
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Pelicans99–121
  • Wvs Cavaliers114–111
  • Lvs Heat117–129
  • L@ Rockets110–120
  • Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
  • Lvs Spurs111–117
  • Lvs Grizzlies105–110
  • Lvs Lakers123–132
  • Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.