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NBA · Wed, Mar 17

Grizzlies @ Warriors

Chase Center · at Warriors · Conference game
#12MEMGrizzlies
@
#13GSWarriors
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MEMThis seasonGS
6-0Record4-3
6-0ATS5-2
2-4O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 119–114 · win probability GS 62%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 233.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MEM 3, GS 3 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MEMBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0
GSBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, GS 28.8. Allowed: MEM 31.4, GS 27.3
MEMSmall
Three-pointers
MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 42.1% and 47.1% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
MEMSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, GS 70.4%
GSSmall
Home court
GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, MEM 4-0 away
GSSmall
GS offense vs MEM defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
Even
MEM offense vs GS defense
Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, GS 16.7%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, GS 17.6%
Even
Recent form
Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelGS -4.4
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model233.1
Model edge—
Projected score
MEM 114.4 · GS 118.8
Win probability
GS 62%
1st half
Spread
GS -2.3
Total
116.6
Projected score
MEM 57.1 · GS 59.5
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Grizzlies 4, Warriors 0, even 1
GrizzliesBetterWarriors
G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97
MEMSmall
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87
MEMSmall
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33
MEMSmall
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85
Even
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92
MEMSmall
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
GrizzliesBetterWarriors
MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3
Even
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1
Even
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player
MEMBig
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players
MEMBig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
Bench-18.8 · 5 players
GSBig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMEM betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Grizzlies
Guards
T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min
Forwards
C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min
Centers
Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min
Out
S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MEMGS
Scoring
121.2 #1Points per game117.7 #11
1.16 #4Points per possession1.17 #3
103.6 #13Pace (possessions)101.4 #25
Shooting
55.9 #5Effective FG%55.3 #8
41.7 #13-point %40.0 #2
42.1 #193-point attempt rate47.1 #5
25.3 #22Free throw rate28.8 #15
Possessions
15.4 #16Turnover rate16.7 #22
30.6 #5Offensive rebound rate33.2 #1
27.0 #13Assists per game27.4 #10
Defense
106.0 #3Points allowed114.9 #16
1.03 #2Points allowed per possession1.13 #21
49.2 #3Opponent effective FG%56.0 #25
30.0 #3Opponent 3-point %35.2 #16
15.7 #15Turnovers forced17.6 #5
75.0 #9Defensive rebound rate70.4 #23
6.3 #28Steals per game9.1 #11
5.2 #11Blocks per game4.1 #24
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Kings136–105
  • W@ Trail Blazers124–103
  • W@ Jazz110–105
  • W@ Kings123–112
  • W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.