Chase Center · at Warriors · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 POR | This season | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 3-2 | ATS | 5-2 |
| 2-3 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects POR 116–115 · win probability POR 54%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 230.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: POR has more of the edges
POR 3, GS 2 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PORBigShooting
Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0
GSSmallRecent form
Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
PORSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: POR 35.9, GS 28.8. Allowed: POR 27.8, GS 27.3
GSSmallHome court
GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, POR 3-0 away
PORSmallPOR offense vs GS defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, GS 70.4%
Even
GS offense vs POR defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 51.5% and 47.1% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, GS 16.7%. Forced: POR 14.8%, GS 17.6%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -1.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model230.9
Model edge—
Projected score
POR 116.2 · GS 114.7
Win probability
POR 54%
1st half
Spread
POR -1.0
Total
115.6
Projected score
POR 58.3 · GS 57.3
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PORlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
| GSlast 7 | 4-3 57% | 5-2 71% | 4-3 57% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22
POR 4–14 GSGS leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · POR 9-9 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2025-26 | POR 97 @ GS 119 | GS -10.5 | GS W |
| Dec 14, 2025-26 | GS 131 @ POR 136 | POR +5.5 | POR W |
| Nov 21, 2025-26 | POR 127 @ GS 123 | GS -9.5 | POR W |
| Oct 24, 2025-26 | GS 119 @ POR 139 | POR +2.5 | POR W |
| Apr 11, 2024-25 | GS 103 @ POR 86 | POR +15.5 | GS W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Trail Blazers
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
PHX
PHXW 124-83
+37.5
23
@
SAC
SACW 128-120
−1.5
27
@
LAL
LALW 136-129
+8.5
29
vs
MEM
MEML 103-124
−28.5
31
@
UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
+15.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsPHX
PHXW 124-83
−25.5
23
@SAC
SACW 128-120
+16.5
27
@LAL
LALW 136-129
+30.5
29
vsMEM
MEML 103-124
−6.5
31
@UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
−30.5
over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Warriors
7 games played
Straight up
4-3
57% wins
Against the spread
5-2
71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @LAL | L 105-127 | +6.5 | L −15.5 | 233.5 | U 232 |
| Oct 23 | vsMEM | L 108-111 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 236.5 | U 219 |
| Oct 24 | @PHX | L 122-131 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 221.5 | O 253 |
| Oct 26 | @ DEN | W 134-114 | +6.5 | W +26.5 | 236.5 | O 248 |
| Oct 28 | @ MIN | W 119-114 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 227.5 | O 233 |
| Oct 30 | vsLAL | W 112-95 | +2.5 | W +19.5 | 234.5 | U 207 |
| Nov 1 | vs LAC | W 124-112 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 220.5 | O 236 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−15.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−7.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+0.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+26.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+8.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
+19.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+10.5
covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−1.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−17.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+31.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+11.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+5.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
−27.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+15.5
over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The starting fives are even
Position by position: Trail Blazers 2, Warriors 2, even 1
Trail BlazersBetterWarriors
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast
Score 89
←PORSmall
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 72
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 34
→GSSmall
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 62
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 82
←PORBig
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 5
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 44
→GSSmall
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 78
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 74
=Even
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 72
Trail BlazersBetterWarriors
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
=Even
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
=Even
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
←PORBig
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
←PORBig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
←PORBig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPOR betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Trail BlazersGuards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
WarriorsGuards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
POR120.6 #4GS117.7 #11Points per possession
POR1.16 #5GS1.17 #3Pace (possessions)
POR103.5 #14GS101.4 #25Shooting
Effective FG%
POR56.2 #4GS55.3 #83-point %
POR35.3 #12GS40.0 #23-point attempt rate
POR51.5 #1GS47.1 #5Free throw rate
POR35.9 #3GS28.8 #15Possessions
Turnover rate
POR14.6 #9GS16.7 #22Offensive rebound rate
POR27.6 #14GS33.2 #1Assists per game
POR26.2 #17GS27.4 #10Defense
Points allowed
POR109.2 #10GS114.9 #16Points allowed per possession
POR1.06 #10GS1.13 #21Opponent effective FG%
POR51.3 #8GS56.0 #25Opponent 3-point %
POR32.1 #8GS35.2 #16Turnovers forced
POR14.8 #20GS17.6 #5Defensive rebound rate
POR77.3 #3GS70.4 #23Steals per game
POR8.6 #18GS9.1 #11Blocks per game
POR4.2 #21GS4.1 #24| POR | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 120.6 #4 | Points per game | 117.7 #11 |
| 1.16 #5 | Points per possession | 1.17 #3 |
| 103.5 #14 | Pace (possessions) | 101.4 #25 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.2 #4 | Effective FG% | 55.3 #8 |
| 35.3 #12 | 3-point % | 40.0 #2 |
| 51.5 #1 | 3-point attempt rate | 47.1 #5 |
| 35.9 #3 | Free throw rate | 28.8 #15 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.6 #9 | Turnover rate | 16.7 #22 |
| 27.6 #14 | Offensive rebound rate | 33.2 #1 |
| 26.2 #17 | Assists per game | 27.4 #10 |
| Defense | ||
| 109.2 #10 | Points allowed | 114.9 #16 |
| 1.06 #10 | Points allowed per possession | 1.13 #21 |
| 51.3 #8 | Opponent effective FG% | 56.0 #25 |
| 32.1 #8 | Opponent 3-point % | 35.2 #16 |
| 14.8 #20 | Turnovers forced | 17.6 #5 |
| 77.3 #3 | Defensive rebound rate | 70.4 #23 |
| 8.6 #18 | Steals per game | 9.1 #11 |
| 4.2 #21 | Blocks per game | 4.1 #24 |
Trail Blazers
4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Jazz112–90
- Lvs Grizzlies103–124
- W@ Lakers136–129
- W@ Kings128–120
- Wvs Suns124–83
A week or more of rest.
Warriors
4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Clippers124–112
- Wvs Lakers112–95
- W@ Timberwolves119–114
- W@ Nuggets134–114
- L@ Suns122–131
A week or more of rest.