Frost Bank Center · at Spurs · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 DAL | This season | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 119–109 · win probability SA 76%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 228.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: SA has more of the edges
DAL 3, SA 6 · 2026-27 so far
SABigTurnovers
Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, SA 13.1%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, SA 15.7%
Context
Schedule so far
DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DALBigThree-pointers
DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 42.1% and 39.0% of their shots
SABigSA offense vs DAL defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
SABigDAL offense vs SA defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
DALSmallShooting
Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1
SASmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, SA 75.8%
SASmallFree throws
Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, SA 24.5. Allowed: DAL 27.2, SA 21.7
DALSmallRecent form
Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0
SASmallHome court
SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, DAL 2-1 away
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -9.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model228.7
Model edge—
Projected score
DAL 109.4 · SA 119.2
Win probability
SA 76%
1st half
Spread
SA -5.4
Total
114.5
Projected score
DAL 54.6 · SA 59.9
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DALlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22
DAL 14–7 SADAL leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 6 meetings · DAL 9-12 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026-27 | SA 122 @ DAL 106 | DAL +14.5 | SA W |
| Apr 10, 2025-26 | DAL 120 @ SA 139 | SA -18.5 | SA W |
| Feb 7, 2025-26 | DAL 125 @ SA 138 | SA -11.5 | SA W |
| Feb 5, 2025-26 | SA 135 @ DAL 123 | DAL +7.5 | SA W |
| Oct 22, 2025-26 | SA 125 @ DAL 92 | DAL -3.5 | SA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mavericks
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@
IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@
MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vs
OKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+3.5
over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@
UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Spurs has the better starters
Position by position: Mavericks 1, Spurs 3, even 1
MavericksBetterSpurs
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 9
→SABig
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 78
←DALSmall
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast
Score 49
→SABig
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 65
=Even
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 46
→SABig
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
MavericksBetterSpurs
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
→SASmall
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
→SABig
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
→SABig
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
→SASmall
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
→SABig
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAL betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MavericksGuards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
DAL114.3 #14SA117.3 #12Points per possession
DAL1.12 #11SA1.12 #10Pace (possessions)
DAL102.8 #18SA104.3 #11Shooting
Effective FG%
DAL56.9 #2SA53.3 #163-point %
DAL35.1 #14SA34.9 #173-point attempt rate
DAL42.1 #18SA39.0 #24Free throw rate
DAL21.4 #29SA24.5 #24Possessions
Turnover rate
DAL16.8 #23SA13.1 #2Offensive rebound rate
DAL27.8 #13SA27.2 #16Assists per game
DAL27.0 #12SA27.5 #9Defense
Points allowed
DAL111.8 #14SA110.2 #12Points allowed per possession
DAL1.08 #13SA1.06 #6Opponent effective FG%
DAL51.3 #9SA52.1 #11Opponent 3-point %
DAL29.7 #2SA37.3 #23Turnovers forced
DAL14.5 #24SA15.7 #14Defensive rebound rate
DAL69.4 #25SA75.8 #7Steals per game
DAL8.8 #16SA9.2 #10Blocks per game
DAL6.8 #2SA7.0 #1| DAL | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 114.3 #14 | Points per game | 117.3 #12 |
| 1.12 #11 | Points per possession | 1.12 #10 |
| 102.8 #18 | Pace (possessions) | 104.3 #11 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.9 #2 | Effective FG% | 53.3 #16 |
| 35.1 #14 | 3-point % | 34.9 #17 |
| 42.1 #18 | 3-point attempt rate | 39.0 #24 |
| 21.4 #29 | Free throw rate | 24.5 #24 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.8 #23 | Turnover rate | 13.1 #2 |
| 27.8 #13 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #16 |
| 27.0 #12 | Assists per game | 27.5 #9 |
| Defense | ||
| 111.8 #14 | Points allowed | 110.2 #12 |
| 1.08 #13 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #6 |
| 51.3 #9 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.1 #11 |
| 29.7 #2 | Opponent 3-point % | 37.3 #23 |
| 14.5 #24 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #14 |
| 69.4 #25 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.8 #7 |
| 8.8 #16 | Steals per game | 9.2 #10 |
| 6.8 #2 | Blocks per game | 7.0 #1 |
Mavericks
4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Rockets116–111
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
A week or more of rest.
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.