Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Mar 19, 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawks and Lakers
ATL	This season	LAL
3-4	Record	5-2
3-4	ATS	4-3
4-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 120–116 · win probability LAL 62%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

ATL 3, LAL 5 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, LAL 37.2. Allowed: ATL 32.1, LAL 30.7

LALBig

LAL offense vs ATL defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, LAL 17.8%

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

ATLBig

ATL offense vs LAL defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALSmall

Recent form

Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

ATLSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, LAL 67.4%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, ATL 2-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 44.7% and 45.7% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: ATL away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 20	@ LAC	L92–115LU
Mar 22	@ GS	W126–110WO
Mar 24	@ SAC	W123–113LO

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 21	vs DAL	L128–134LO
Mar 23	@ MIA	W134–126WO
Mar 25	@ CLE	W127–113WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

ATL 4–6 LALLAL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ATL 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 13, 2025-26	ATL 116 @ LAL 141	LAL -1.5	LAL W
Nov 8, 2025-26	LAL 102 @ ATL 122	ATL +5.5	ATL W
Jan 3, 2024-25	ATL 102 @ LAL 119	LAL -1.5	LAL W
Dec 6, 2024-25	LAL 132 @ ATL 134	ATL -3.5	LAL W
Mar 18, 2023-24	ATL 105 @ LAL 136	LAL -9.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 0, Lakers 1, even 4

HawksBetterLakers

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

LALSmall

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

Even

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

Even

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

Even

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

Even

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

HawksBetterLakers

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

ATLSmall

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

LALBig

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

LALBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ATL116.3 #13

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

ATL1.10 #16

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

ATL105.6 #7

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

ATL52.6 #19

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

ATL32.8 #22

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

ATL44.7 #11

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

ATL23.4 #26

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

ATL13.8 #4

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

ATL27.1 #18

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

ATL30.7 #1

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

ATL115.4 #19

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

ATL1.10 #17

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

ATL54.5 #22

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

ATL31.9 #7

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

ATL18.3 #2

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

ATL70.9 #19

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

ATL9.4 #8

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

ATL3.7 #29

LAL6.7 #3

ATL		LAL
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.10 #16	Points per possession	1.18 #2
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
32.8 #22	3-point %	38.9 #4
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
30.7 #1	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
9.4 #8	Steals per game	10.4 #4
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Hawks @ Lakers

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

Lakers

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

Lakers