Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Mar 19, 10:30 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns

#18MIAHeat

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Heat and Suns
MIA	This season	PHX
2-4	Record	1-3
2-4	ATS	0-4
3-3	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHX 118–118 · win probability PHX 50%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

MIA 3, PHX 2 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs PHX defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, PHX 22.8. Allowed: MIA 23.2, PHX 31.1

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHXSmall

PHX offense vs MIA defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

MIASmall

Recent form

Last 4: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, MIA 1-1 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

Even

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 41.7% and 45.1% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, PHX 17.1%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, PHX 65.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: MIA away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 21	vs DEN	W147–123WO
Mar 23	vs LAL	L126–134LO
Mar 25	vs UTAH	L111–115LU

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 21	vs POR	L83–124LU
Mar 23	vs OKC	L114–125LO
Mar 24	vs OKC	L114–125LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MIA 6–4 PHXMIA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIA has won the last 3 meetings · MIA 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 25, 2025-26	MIA 111 @ PHX 102	PHX -4.5	MIA W
Jan 13, 2025-26	PHX 121 @ MIA 127	MIA -1.5	MIA W
Dec 7, 2024-25	PHX 111 @ MIA 121	MIA -5.5	MIA W
Nov 6, 2024-25	MIA 112 @ PHX 115	PHX -5.5	MIA W
Jan 29, 2023-24	PHX 118 @ MIA 105	MIA -2.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 2, Suns 1, even 2

HeatBetterSuns

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

PHXBig

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

Even

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

MIABig

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

Even

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

MIABig

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

HeatBetterSuns

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

MIABig

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

PHXSmall

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

PHX5.3 #10

MIA		PHX
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.12 #12
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
34.1 #19	3-point %	35.0 #16
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
28.8 #3	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
8.3 #19	Steals per game	9.0 #15
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ Suns

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Suns

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Suns