Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 17, 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Lakers
PHX	This season	LAL
1-3	Record	5-2
0-4	ATS	4-3
3-1	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 120–112 · win probability LAL 71%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

PHX 1, LAL 6 · 2026-27 so far

LALBig

LAL offense vs PHX defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

LALBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, LAL 37.2. Allowed: PHX 31.1, LAL 30.7

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

LALBig

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 45.1% and 45.7% of their shots

LALBig

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

PHXSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, LAL 17.8%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, PHX 0-2 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, LAL 67.4%

Even

PHX offense vs LAL defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: PHX away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 19	vs MIA	L102–111LU
Mar 21	vs POR	L83–124LU
Mar 23	vs OKC	L114–125LO

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 19	vs ATL	W141–116WO
Mar 21	vs DAL	L128–134LO
Mar 23	@ MIA	W134–126WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

PHX 13–9 LALPHX leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · PHX 12-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 10, 2025-26	PHX 73 @ LAL 101	LAL +2.5	LAL W
Feb 26, 2025-26	LAL 110 @ PHX 113	PHX +5.5	PHX W
Dec 23, 2025-26	LAL 108 @ PHX 132	PHX -3.5	PHX W
Dec 14, 2025-26	LAL 116 @ PHX 114	PHX -1.5	LAL W
Dec 1, 2025-26	PHX 125 @ LAL 108	LAL -5.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 0, Lakers 3, even 2

SunsBetterLakers

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

Even

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

LALBig

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

LALBig

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

Even

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

LALSmall

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

SunsBetterLakers

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Even

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

LALBig

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

LALBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

LALBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

LAL6.7 #3

PHX		LAL
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.18 #2
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
35.0 #16	3-point %	38.9 #4
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
27.5 #8	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
9.0 #15	Steals per game	10.4 #4
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Lakers

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Lakers

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Lakers