Moda Center · at Trail Blazers
LineNo line yet
Total—
 MIA | This season | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 3-2 |
| 3-3 | O/U | 2-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects POR 121–114 · win probability POR 70%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 234.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: POR has more of the edges
MIA 1, POR 6 · 2026-27 so far
PORBigPOR offense vs MIA defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PORBigThree-pointers
MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 41.7% and 51.5% of their shots
PORBigShooting
Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3
PORBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, POR 77.3%
MIABigMIA offense vs POR defense
Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points
PORSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, POR 35.9. Allowed: MIA 23.2, POR 27.8
PORSmallHome court
POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, MIA 1-1 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, POR 14.6%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, POR 14.8%
Even
Recent form
Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -7.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model234.9
Model edge—
Projected score
MIA 113.8 · POR 121.1
Win probability
POR 70%
1st half
Spread
POR -4.0
Total
117.4
Projected score
MIA 56.7 · POR 60.7
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIAlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
| PORlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
MIA 7–3 PORMIA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIA 7-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2025-26 | MIA 110 @ POR 127 | POR -3.5 | POR W |
| Nov 8, 2025-26 | POR 131 @ MIA 136 | MIA +3.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 21, 2024-25 | POR 116 @ MIA 107 | MIA -8.5 | POR W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | MIA 119 @ POR 98 | POR +4.5 | MIA W |
| Mar 29, 2023-24 | POR 82 @ MIA 142 | MIA -13.5 | MIA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Heat
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
MIN
MINL 106-131
−26.5
23
vs
DET
DETL 111-128
−14.5
24
@
CHA
CHAL 110-115
−9.5
26
vs
DAL
DALL 109-113
−11.5
28
@
ATL
ATLW 129-117
+14.5
30
vs
IND
INDW 145-125
+11.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsMIN
MINL 106-131
−3.5
23
vsDET
DETL 111-128
+3.5
24
@CHA
CHAL 110-115
−2.5
26
vsDAL
DALL 109-113
−18.5
28
@ATL
ATLW 129-117
+2.5
30
vsIND
INDW 145-125
+33.5
over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Trail Blazers
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
PHX
PHXW 124-83
+37.5
23
@
SAC
SACW 128-120
−1.5
27
@
LAL
LALW 136-129
+8.5
29
vs
MEM
MEML 103-124
−28.5
31
@
UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
+15.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsPHX
PHXW 124-83
−25.5
23
@SAC
SACW 128-120
+16.5
27
@LAL
LALW 136-129
+30.5
29
vsMEM
MEML 103-124
−6.5
31
@UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
−30.5
over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The starting fives are even
Position by position: Heat 1, Trail Blazers 1, even 3
HeatBetterTrail Blazers
G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast
Score 48
→PORBig
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast
Score 89
G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 20
=Even
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 34
F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast
Score 89
=Even
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 82
F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 62
←MIASmall
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 44
C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 66
=Even
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 74
HeatBetterTrail Blazers
MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9
←MIASmall
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2
→PORBig
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players
→PORBig
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players
←MIABig
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
→PORBig
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIA betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
HeatGuards
D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min
Forwards
G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min
Centers
B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min
Out
T. HardawayDay-To-Day
Trail BlazersGuards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
MIA118.3 #9POR120.6 #4Points per possession
MIA1.11 #14POR1.16 #5Pace (possessions)
MIA106.2 #5POR103.5 #14Shooting
Effective FG%
MIA54.6 #12POR56.2 #43-point %
MIA34.1 #19POR35.3 #123-point attempt rate
MIA41.7 #20POR51.5 #1Free throw rate
MIA27.3 #19POR35.9 #3Possessions
Turnover rate
MIA14.1 #5POR14.6 #9Offensive rebound rate
MIA24.5 #24POR27.6 #14Assists per game
MIA28.8 #3POR26.2 #17Defense
Points allowed
MIA121.5 #26POR109.2 #10Points allowed per possession
MIA1.15 #26POR1.06 #10Opponent effective FG%
MIA56.8 #27POR51.3 #8Opponent 3-point %
MIA40.6 #29POR32.1 #8Turnovers forced
MIA15.4 #18POR14.8 #20Defensive rebound rate
MIA72.3 #17POR77.3 #3Steals per game
MIA8.3 #19POR8.6 #18Blocks per game
MIA5.0 #13POR4.2 #21| MIA | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 118.3 #9 | Points per game | 120.6 #4 |
| 1.11 #14 | Points per possession | 1.16 #5 |
| 106.2 #5 | Pace (possessions) | 103.5 #14 |
| Shooting | ||
| 54.6 #12 | Effective FG% | 56.2 #4 |
| 34.1 #19 | 3-point % | 35.3 #12 |
| 41.7 #20 | 3-point attempt rate | 51.5 #1 |
| 27.3 #19 | Free throw rate | 35.9 #3 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.1 #5 | Turnover rate | 14.6 #9 |
| 24.5 #24 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.6 #14 |
| 28.8 #3 | Assists per game | 26.2 #17 |
| Defense | ||
| 121.5 #26 | Points allowed | 109.2 #10 |
| 1.15 #26 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #10 |
| 56.8 #27 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.3 #8 |
| 40.6 #29 | Opponent 3-point % | 32.1 #8 |
| 15.4 #18 | Turnovers forced | 14.8 #20 |
| 72.3 #17 | Defensive rebound rate | 77.3 #3 |
| 8.3 #19 | Steals per game | 8.6 #18 |
| 5.0 #13 | Blocks per game | 4.2 #21 |
Heat
2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Pacers145–125
- W@ Hawks129–117
- Lvs Mavericks109–113
- L@ Hornets110–115
- Lvs Pistons111–128
A week or more of rest.
Trail Blazers
4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Jazz112–90
- Lvs Grizzlies103–124
- W@ Lakers136–129
- W@ Kings128–120
- Wvs Suns124–83
A week or more of rest.