Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Mar 15, 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and 76ers
TOR	This season	PHI
3-3	Record	6-1
3-3	ATS	4-3
3-3	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 111–110 · win probability TOR 53%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 221.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

TOR 2, PHI 5 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, PHI 70.8%

TORBig

PHI offense vs TOR defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

PHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, PHI 28.7. Allowed: TOR 41.5, PHI 28.5

PHISmall

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 38.1% and 39.5% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

PHISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, TOR 1-2 away

PHISmall

TOR offense vs PHI defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, PHI 17.0%

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: TOR away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 18	@ IND	W122–104WU
Mar 19	vs SAC	L115–123LO
Mar 21	@ UTAH	W143–127WO

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 17	vs CHI	W157–137WO
Mar 18	@ WSH	W153–131WO
Mar 21	vs SA	L102–115LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 26 since 2021-22

TOR 12–14 PHIPHI leads · 26 games since 2021-22 · TOR 14-12 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 12, 2025-26	PHI 115 @ TOR 102	TOR +3.5	PHI W
Jan 11, 2025-26	PHI 115 @ TOR 116	TOR +1.5	TOR W
Nov 19, 2025-26	TOR 121 @ PHI 112	PHI +2.5	TOR W
Nov 8, 2025-26	TOR 120 @ PHI 130	PHI -5.5	PHI W
Mar 30, 2024-25	TOR 127 @ PHI 109	PHI +6.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 2, 76ers 3, even 0

RaptorsBetter76ers

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

PHISmall

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

TORSmall

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

PHISmall

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

TORSmall

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

PHIBig

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

RaptorsBetter76ers

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Even

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

TORBig

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

PHI5.0 #14

TOR		PHI
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	108.7 #23
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.06 #22
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
32.0 #24	3-point %	34.0 #20
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
29.2 #2	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
12.7 #2	Steals per game	9.6 #7
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ 76ers

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

76ers

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

76ers