Phoenix Suns at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 13, 6:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Hornets
PHX	This season	CHA
1-3	Record	3-4
0-4	ATS	3-4
3-1	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHA 110–108 · win probability CHA 56%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 218.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CHA has more of the edges

PHX 2, CHA 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, CHA 76.6%

PHXBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, CHA 14.5%

CHABig

PHX offense vs CHA defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

PHXBig

CHA offense vs PHX defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

CHASmall

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, PHX 0-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 45.1% and 50.8% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, CHA 18.9. Allowed: PHX 31.1, CHA 28.4

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: PHX away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 15	@ MEM	W131–105WO
Mar 17	@ LAL	L73–101LU
Mar 19	vs MIA	L102–111LU

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 16	@ OKC	W124–97WU
Mar 18	@ NO	W102–95WU
Mar 20	@ DET	L89–97LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHX 8–2 CHAPHX leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHX 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 2, 2025-26	PHX 107 @ CHA 127	CHA -5.5	CHA W
Mar 8, 2025-26	CHA 99 @ PHX 111	PHX +4.5	PHX W
Jan 12, 2024-25	CHA 113 @ PHX 120	PHX -6.5	PHX W
Jan 7, 2024-25	PHX 104 @ CHA 115	CHA +4.5	CHA W
Mar 15, 2023-24	PHX 107 @ CHA 96	CHA +10.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hornets has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 1, Hornets 2, even 2

SunsBetterHornets

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

PHXBig

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

CHABig

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

CHABig

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

Even

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

Even

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

SunsBetterHornets

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

CHABig

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

PHXSmall

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

CHABig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

CHA5.0 #15

PHX		CHA
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.12 #12	Points per possession	0.99 #30
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
35.0 #16	3-point %	29.6 #28
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
27.5 #8	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
9.0 #15	Steals per game	7.1 #25
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Hornets

What could decide it: CHA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Hornets

Hornets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Hornets