Memphis Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 13, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Grizzlies and Bulls
MEM	This season	CHI
6-0	Record	1-5
6-0	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 123–117 · win probability MEM 66%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 239.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

MEM 6, CHI 2 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Three-pointers

MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 42.1% and 47.9% of their shots

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

MEMBig

MEM offense vs CHI defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, CHI 69.8%

CHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, CHI 38.3. Allowed: MEM 31.4, CHI 33.5

Context

Tempo

About 107 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

MEMSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

MEMSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, CHI 14.7%

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, MEM 4-0 away

Even

CHI offense vs MEM defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	4-0	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: MEM away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 15	vs PHX	L105–131LO
Mar 17	@ GS	W111–108WU
Mar 18	@ LAC	L120–123WO

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 15	vs ORL	L103–127LU
Mar 17	@ PHI	L137–157LO
Mar 20	@ CLE	L110–115WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MEM 5–5 CHISeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · MEM 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 28, 2025-26	CHI 124 @ MEM 125	MEM +5.5	MEM W
Mar 16, 2025-26	MEM 107 @ CHI 132	CHI -7.5	CHI W
Nov 23, 2024-25	MEM 142 @ CHI 131	CHI +4.5	MEM W
Oct 28, 2024-25	CHI 126 @ MEM 123	MEM -4.5	CHI W
Feb 8, 2023-24	CHI 118 @ MEM 110	MEM +5.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Grizzlies 5, Bulls 0, even 0

GrizzliesBetterBulls

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

MEMSmall

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

MEMBig

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

MEMSmall

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

MEMBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

MEMBig

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

GrizzliesBetterBulls

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

MEMBig

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

Even

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

MEMBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

CHIBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMEM betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MEM121.2 #1

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

MEM1.16 #4

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

MEM103.6 #13

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

MEM55.9 #5

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

MEM41.7 #1

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

MEM42.1 #19

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

MEM25.3 #22

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

MEM15.4 #16

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

MEM30.6 #5

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

MEM27.0 #13

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

MEM106.0 #3

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

MEM1.03 #2

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

MEM49.2 #3

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

MEM30.0 #3

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

MEM15.7 #15

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

MEM75.0 #9

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

MEM6.3 #28

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

MEM5.2 #11

CHI5.0 #12

MEM		CHI
Scoring
121.2 #1	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.16 #4	Points per possession	1.04 #26
103.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
55.9 #5	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
41.7 #1	3-point %	28.1 #30
42.1 #19	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
25.3 #22	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
15.4 #16	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
30.6 #5	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
27.0 #13	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
106.0 #3	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.03 #2	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
49.2 #3	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
30.0 #3	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
15.7 #15	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
75.0 #9	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
6.3 #28	Steals per game	8.7 #17
5.2 #11	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies @ Bulls

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Grizzlies

Bulls

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Grizzlies

Bulls