American Airlines Center · at Mavericks · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 NO | This season | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 4-2 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DAL 120–115 · win probability DAL 65%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 235.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges
NO 2, DAL 4 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DALBigShooting
Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
DALSmallDAL offense vs NO defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
NOSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: NO 35.3, DAL 21.4. Allowed: NO 30.6, DAL 27.2
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
DALSmallThree-pointers
NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 32.8% and 42.1% of their shots
NOSmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: NO 16.3%, DAL 14.5%
DALSmallHome court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, NO 0-2 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, DAL 69.4%
Even
NO offense vs DAL defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Recent form
Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDAL -5.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model235.4
Model edge—
Projected score
NO 115.1 · DAL 120.3
Win probability
DAL 65%
1st half
Spread
DAL -2.8
Total
117.7
Projected score
NO 57.4 · DAL 60.2
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% |
| DALlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22
NO 9–11 DALDAL leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · NO has won the last 2 meetings · NO 11-8-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025-26 | DAL 111 @ NO 129 | NO -8.5 | NO W |
| Dec 22, 2025-26 | DAL 113 @ NO 119 | NO +1.5 | NO W |
| Nov 21, 2025-26 | NO 115 @ DAL 118 | DAL -3.5 | NO W |
| Nov 5, 2025-26 | NO 101 @ DAL 99 | DAL -8.5 | NO W |
| Feb 21, 2024-25 | NO 103 @ DAL 111 | DAL -5.5 | DAL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pelicans
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
IND
INDL 120-123
−0.5
23
@
UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@
DEN
DENL 135-141
+5.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−8.5
29
vs
SAC
SACW 132-120
+5.5
31
vs
ATL
ATLW 121-99
+27.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsIND
INDL 120-123
+4.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@DEN
DENL 135-141
+36.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−46.5
29
vsSAC
SACW 132-120
+17.5
31
vsATL
ATLW 121-99
−19.5
over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mavericks
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vs
SA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@
MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vs
OKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+3.5
over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pelicans has the better starters
Position by position: Pelicans 2, Mavericks 1, even 2
PelicansBetterMavericks
G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast
Score 45
←NOBig
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 9
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 19
→DALBig
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 78
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 81
←NOSmall
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast
Score 49
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 75
=Even
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 65
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast
Score 52
=Even
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 46
PelicansBetterMavericks
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
=Even
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
→DALSmall
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
←NOBig
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players
=Even
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
→DALBig
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNO betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
PelicansGuards
D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut
MavericksGuards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
NO119.7 #7DAL114.3 #14Points per possession
NO1.10 #15DAL1.12 #11Pace (possessions)
NO108.0 #2DAL102.8 #18Shooting
Effective FG%
NO55.1 #9DAL56.9 #23-point %
NO31.2 #25DAL35.1 #143-point attempt rate
NO32.8 #30DAL42.1 #18Free throw rate
NO35.3 #4DAL21.4 #29Possessions
Turnover rate
NO17.4 #26DAL16.8 #23Offensive rebound rate
NO24.3 #25DAL27.8 #13Assists per game
NO25.5 #21DAL27.0 #12Defense
Points allowed
NO117.8 #24DAL111.8 #14Points allowed per possession
NO1.09 #16DAL1.08 #13Opponent effective FG%
NO54.2 #21DAL51.3 #9Opponent 3-point %
NO30.5 #5DAL29.7 #2Turnovers forced
NO16.3 #10DAL14.5 #24Defensive rebound rate
NO76.4 #6DAL69.4 #25Steals per game
NO13.7 #1DAL8.8 #16Blocks per game
NO4.8 #16DAL6.8 #2| NO | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 119.7 #7 | Points per game | 114.3 #14 |
| 1.10 #15 | Points per possession | 1.12 #11 |
| 108.0 #2 | Pace (possessions) | 102.8 #18 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.1 #9 | Effective FG% | 56.9 #2 |
| 31.2 #25 | 3-point % | 35.1 #14 |
| 32.8 #30 | 3-point attempt rate | 42.1 #18 |
| 35.3 #4 | Free throw rate | 21.4 #29 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.4 #26 | Turnover rate | 16.8 #23 |
| 24.3 #25 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.8 #13 |
| 25.5 #21 | Assists per game | 27.0 #12 |
| Defense | ||
| 117.8 #24 | Points allowed | 111.8 #14 |
| 1.09 #16 | Points allowed per possession | 1.08 #13 |
| 54.2 #21 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.3 #9 |
| 30.5 #5 | Opponent 3-point % | 29.7 #2 |
| 16.3 #10 | Turnovers forced | 14.5 #24 |
| 76.4 #6 | Defensive rebound rate | 69.4 #25 |
| 13.7 #1 | Steals per game | 8.8 #16 |
| 4.8 #16 | Blocks per game | 6.8 #2 |
Pelicans
2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Hawks121–99
- Wvs Kings132–120
- Lvs Nuggets91–104
- L@ Nuggets135–141
- L@ Jazz119–120
A week or more of rest.
Mavericks
4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Rockets116–111
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
A week or more of rest.