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NBA · Mon, Mar 15

Hawks @ Mavericks

American Airlines Center · at Mavericks
#14ATLHawks
@
#17DALMavericks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ATLThis seasonDAL
3-4Record4-2
3-4ATS4-2
4-3O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAL 117–116 · win probability DAL 55%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 232.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

ATL 2, DAL 5 · 2026-27 so far
ATLBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, DAL 14.5%
DALBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
ATLBig
ATL offense vs DAL defense
Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
DALBig
Recent form
Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
Context
Schedule so far
ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DALSmall
Three-pointers
ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 44.7% and 42.1% of their shots
DALSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, DAL 21.4. Allowed: ATL 32.1, DAL 27.2
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
DALSmall
Home court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, ATL 2-2 away
Even
DAL offense vs ATL defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, DAL 69.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDAL -1.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model232.7
Model edge—
Projected score
ATL 115.5 · DAL 117.2
Win probability
DAL 55%
1st half
Spread
DAL -0.8
Total
116.4
Projected score
ATL 57.8 · DAL 58.6
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Hawks 1, Mavericks 1, even 3
HawksBetterMavericks
G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67
ATLBig
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87
Even
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59
Even
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78
Even
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30
DALSmall
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
HawksBetterMavericks
ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5
ATLSmall
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6
Even
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players
ATLBig
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
DALBig
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
DALBig
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestATL betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Hawks
Guards
N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min
Forwards
O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min
Out
J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ATLDAL
Scoring
116.3 #13Points per game114.3 #14
1.10 #16Points per possession1.12 #11
105.6 #7Pace (possessions)102.8 #18
Shooting
52.6 #19Effective FG%56.9 #2
32.8 #223-point %35.1 #14
44.7 #113-point attempt rate42.1 #18
23.4 #26Free throw rate21.4 #29
Possessions
13.8 #4Turnover rate16.8 #23
27.1 #18Offensive rebound rate27.8 #13
30.7 #1Assists per game27.0 #12
Defense
115.4 #19Points allowed111.8 #14
1.10 #17Points allowed per possession1.08 #13
54.5 #22Opponent effective FG%51.3 #9
31.9 #7Opponent 3-point %29.7 #2
18.3 #2Turnovers forced14.5 #24
70.9 #19Defensive rebound rate69.4 #25
9.4 #8Steals per game8.8 #16
3.7 #29Blocks per game6.8 #2
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Pelicans99–121
  • Wvs Cavaliers114–111
  • Lvs Heat117–129
  • L@ Rockets110–120
  • Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.