Philadelphia 76ers at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 13, 8:30 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Timberwolves
PHI	This season	MIN
6-1	Record	4-3
4-3	ATS	6-1
2-5	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 117–107 · win probability MIN 76%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

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model 223.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

PHI 1, MIN 7 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, MIN 75.4%

MINBig

PHI offense vs MIN defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, MIN 15.6%

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

MINSmall

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 39.5% and 42.8% of their shots

MINSmall

MIN offense vs PHI defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, PHI 3-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, MIN 26.1. Allowed: PHI 28.5, MIN 28.9

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	—

Venue/role: PHI away; MIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 15	vs TOR	W115–102WU
Mar 17	vs CHI	W157–137WO
Mar 18	@ WSH	W153–131WO

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 14	vs WSH	W141–115WO
Mar 16	@ NO	W132–126WO
Mar 18	@ UTAH	W147–111WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHI 5–5 MINSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 2 meetings · PHI 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 3, 2025-26	MIN 103 @ PHI 115	PHI -3.5	PHI W
Feb 22, 2025-26	PHI 135 @ MIN 108	MIN -9.5	PHI W
Apr 5, 2024-25	MIN 114 @ PHI 109	PHI +16.5	PHI W
Mar 4, 2024-25	PHI 112 @ MIN 126	MIN -13.5	MIN W
Dec 20, 2023-24	MIN 113 @ PHI 127	PHI -4.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 1, Timberwolves 2, even 2

76ersBetterTimberwolves

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

PHISmall

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

MINBig

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

Even

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

MINBig

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

Even

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

76ersBetterTimberwolves

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

MINBig

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

MINSmall

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

MIN4.3 #20

PHI		MIN
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	120.0 #6
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.13 #8
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
34.0 #20	3-point %	37.6 #6
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
25.1 #22	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
9.6 #7	Steals per game	9.0 #13
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Timberwolves

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Timberwolves

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Timberwolves