Charlotte Hornets at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 16, 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Thunder
CHA	This season	OKC
3-4	Record	4-2
3-4	ATS	3-3
1-6	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 110–103 · win probability OKC 71%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 212.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

CHA 2, OKC 6 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

CHA offense vs OKC defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, OKC 15.8%

CHABig

OKC offense vs CHA defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, OKC 71.4%

OKCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

OKCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, OKC 21.8. Allowed: CHA 28.4, OKC 23.4

OKCSmall

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 50.8% and 35.8% of their shots

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: CHA away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 18	@ NO	W102–95WU
Mar 20	@ DET	L89–97LU
Mar 22	@ MEM	W124–101WU

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 17	vs DAL	L96–120LU
Mar 20	@ MEM	W117–116LO
Mar 23	@ PHX	W125–114WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHA 5–5 OKCSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHA 8-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 5, 2025-26	CHA 124 @ OKC 97	OKC -15.5	CHA W
Nov 15, 2025-26	OKC 109 @ CHA 96	CHA +17.5	CHA W
Mar 21, 2024-25	CHA 106 @ OKC 141	OKC -20.5	OKC W
Dec 28, 2024-25	OKC 106 @ CHA 94	CHA +13.5	CHA W
Apr 7, 2023-24	OKC 121 @ CHA 118	CHA +7.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 2, Thunder 3, even 0

HornetsBetterThunder

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

OKCBig

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

OKCBig

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

CHABig

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

CHASmall

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

OKCBig

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

HornetsBetterThunder

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

OKCBig

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHABig

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

OKCBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

OKC6.3 #7

CHA		OKC
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	106.5 #29
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.05 #23
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
29.6 #28	3-point %	30.9 #26
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
21.6 #30	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
7.1 #25	Steals per game	8.3 #20
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Thunder

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Thunder

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Thunder