Toyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 SA | This season | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 6-1 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 6-1 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 5-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects HOU 113–111 · win probability HOU 54%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 224.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges
SA 1, HOU 5 · 2026-27 so far
HOUBigThree-pointers
SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 39.0% and 38.1% of their shots
HOUSmallShooting
Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points
SASmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: SA 15.7%, HOU 15.7%
HOUSmallRecent form
Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0
HOUSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: SA 24.5, HOU 31.9. Allowed: SA 21.7, HOU 24.7
HOUSmallHome court
HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, SA 2-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, HOU 73.2%
Even
SA offense vs HOU defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
Even
HOU offense vs SA defense
Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelHOU -1.6
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model224.1
Model edge—
Projected score
SA 111.3 · HOU 112.8
Win probability
HOU 54%
1st half
Spread
HOU -0.7
Total
112.4
Projected score
SA 55.8 · HOU 56.6
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
| HOUlast 7 | 6-1 86% | 6-1 86% | 5-2 71% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22
SA 10–11 HOUHOU leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · SA 10-11 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026-27 | HOU 114 @ SA 110 | SA -4.5 | HOU W |
| Mar 8, 2025-26 | HOU 120 @ SA 145 | SA -5.5 | SA W |
| Jan 28, 2025-26 | SA 111 @ HOU 99 | HOU -2.5 | SA W |
| Jan 20, 2025-26 | SA 106 @ HOU 111 | HOU -4.5 | HOU W |
| Nov 7, 2025-26 | HOU 110 @ SA 121 | SA +4.5 | SA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@
UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Rockets
7 games played
Straight up
6-1
86% wins
Against the spread
6-1
86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-2
71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | vsDAL | W 128-110 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 230.5 | O 238 |
| Oct 23 | @SA | W 114-110 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 224.5 | U 224 |
| Oct 24 | @ ATL | W 121-114 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 227.5 | O 235 |
| Oct 26 | vsATL | W 120-110 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 228.5 | O 230 |
| Oct 28 | @ MIL | W 132-100 | -8.5 | W +23.5 | 226.5 | O 232 |
| Oct 30 | @DAL | L 111-116 | -5.5 | L −10.5 | 223.5 | O 227 |
| Oct 31 | vsOKC | W 119-98 | -2.5 | W +18.5 | 219.5 | U 217 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+8.5
23
@SA
SAW 114-110
+8.5
24
@ATL
ATLW 121-114
+5.5
26
vsATL
ATLW 120-110
+5.5
28
@MIL
MILW 132-100
+23.5
30
@DAL
DALL 111-116
−10.5
31
vsOKC
OKCW 119-98
+18.5
covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+7.5
23
@SA
SAW 114-110
−0.5
24
@ATL
ATLW 121-114
+7.5
26
vsATL
ATLW 120-110
+1.5
28
@MIL
MILW 132-100
+5.5
30
@DAL
DALL 111-116
+3.5
31
vsOKC
OKCW 119-98
−2.5
over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The starting fives are even
Position by position: Spurs 1, Rockets 1, even 3
SpursBetterRockets
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
←SABig
G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 60
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
→HOUBig
G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast
Score 94
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
=Even
F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast
Score 79
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
=Even
F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 82
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
=Even
C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast
Score 84
SpursBetterRockets
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
=Even
HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
=Even
HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
←SABig
Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
→HOUBig
Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
←SABig
Bench+16.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSA betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
RocketsGuards
A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min
Forwards
J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min
Centers
A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min
Out
S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
SA117.3 #12HOU120.7 #3Points per possession
SA1.12 #10HOU1.20 #1Pace (possessions)
SA104.3 #11HOU101.6 #24Shooting
Effective FG%
SA53.3 #16HOU56.6 #33-point %
SA34.9 #17HOU39.0 #33-point attempt rate
SA39.0 #24HOU38.1 #26Free throw rate
SA24.5 #24HOU31.9 #8Possessions
Turnover rate
SA13.1 #2HOU15.1 #13Offensive rebound rate
SA27.2 #16HOU32.4 #3Assists per game
SA27.5 #9HOU28.1 #5Defense
Points allowed
SA110.2 #12HOU108.3 #7Points allowed per possession
SA1.06 #6HOU1.06 #8Opponent effective FG%
SA52.1 #11HOU52.1 #10Opponent 3-point %
SA37.3 #23HOU30.2 #4Turnovers forced
SA15.7 #14HOU15.7 #16Defensive rebound rate
SA75.8 #7HOU73.2 #14Steals per game
SA9.2 #10HOU9.7 #6Blocks per game
SA7.0 #1HOU5.9 #8| SA | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 117.3 #12 | Points per game | 120.7 #3 |
| 1.12 #10 | Points per possession | 1.20 #1 |
| 104.3 #11 | Pace (possessions) | 101.6 #24 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.3 #16 | Effective FG% | 56.6 #3 |
| 34.9 #17 | 3-point % | 39.0 #3 |
| 39.0 #24 | 3-point attempt rate | 38.1 #26 |
| 24.5 #24 | Free throw rate | 31.9 #8 |
| Possessions | ||
| 13.1 #2 | Turnover rate | 15.1 #13 |
| 27.2 #16 | Offensive rebound rate | 32.4 #3 |
| 27.5 #9 | Assists per game | 28.1 #5 |
| Defense | ||
| 110.2 #12 | Points allowed | 108.3 #7 |
| 1.06 #6 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #8 |
| 52.1 #11 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.1 #10 |
| 37.3 #23 | Opponent 3-point % | 30.2 #4 |
| 15.7 #14 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #16 |
| 75.8 #7 | Defensive rebound rate | 73.2 #14 |
| 9.2 #10 | Steals per game | 9.7 #6 |
| 7.0 #1 | Blocks per game | 5.9 #8 |
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.
Rockets
6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Thunder119–98
- L@ Mavericks111–116
- W@ Bucks132–100
- Wvs Hawks120–110
- W@ Hawks121–114
A week or more of rest.