Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 16, 10:00 PM ETChase Center · at Warriors

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Warriors
CLE	This season	GS
4-2	Record	4-3
2-4	ATS	5-2
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 118–117 · win probability CLE 52%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

CLE 3, GS 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLEBig

CLE offense vs GS defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

GS offense vs CLE defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points

GSBig

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0

CLESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0

CLESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, GS 28.8. Allowed: CLE 23.2, GS 27.3

GSSmall

Home court

GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, GS 70.4%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, GS 16.7%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, GS 17.6%

Even

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 43.6% and 47.1% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	—

Venue/role: CLE away; GS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 18	@ DEN	W119–117WU
Mar 20	vs CHI	W115–110LU
Mar 22	vs HOU	L100–117LU

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 17	vs MEM	L108–111LU
Mar 19	vs POR	W119–97WU
Mar 22	vs ATL	L110–126LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CLE 5–5 GSSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · CLE 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 2, 2025-26	CLE 118 @ GS 111	GS +10.5	GS W
Dec 6, 2025-26	GS 99 @ CLE 94	CLE -8.5	GS W
Dec 30, 2024-25	CLE 113 @ GS 95	GS +3.5	CLE W
Nov 8, 2024-25	GS 117 @ CLE 136	CLE -3.5	CLE W
Nov 11, 2023-24	CLE 118 @ GS 110	GS -4.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 3, Warriors 2, even 0

CavaliersBetterWarriors

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

GSSmall

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

CLESmall

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

CLEBig

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

GSBig

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLESmall

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

CavaliersBetterWarriors

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLEBig

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

GSBig

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

GSSmall

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

GS117.7 #11

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

GS1.17 #3

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

GS101.4 #25

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

GS55.3 #8

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

GS40.0 #2

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

GS47.1 #5

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

GS28.8 #15

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

GS16.7 #22

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

GS33.2 #1

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

GS27.4 #10

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

GS114.9 #16

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

GS1.13 #21

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

GS56.0 #25

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

GS35.2 #16

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

GS17.6 #5

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

GS70.4 #23

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

GS9.1 #11

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

GS4.1 #24

CLE		GS
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	117.7 #11
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.17 #3
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	101.4 #25
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	55.3 #8
37.0 #8	3-point %	40.0 #2
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	47.1 #5
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	28.8 #15
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	16.7 #22
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	33.2 #1
28.7 #4	Assists per game	27.4 #10
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	114.9 #16
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #21
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #25
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #16
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	17.6 #5
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	70.4 #23
7.8 #22	Steals per game	9.1 #11
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	4.1 #24

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Warriors

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Warriors

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Warriors