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NBA · Tue, Mar 16

Lakers @ Trail Blazers

Moda Center · at Trail Blazers · Conference game
#10LALLakers
@
#9PORTrail Blazers
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LALThis seasonPOR
5-2Record4-1
4-3ATS3-2
4-3O/U2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 118–114 · win probability POR 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 232.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

LAL 1, POR 3 · 2026-27 so far
PORBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, POR 77.3%
Context
Schedule so far
LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
LALSmall
LAL offense vs POR defense
Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
PORSmall
POR offense vs LAL defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings
PORSmall
Home court
POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, LAL 2-1 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, POR 35.9. Allowed: LAL 30.7, POR 27.8
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3
Even
Three-pointers
LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 45.7% and 51.5% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, POR 14.6%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, POR 14.8%
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Recent form
Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -3.9
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model232.2
Model edge—
Projected score
LAL 114.2 · POR 118
Win probability
POR 61%
1st half
Spread
POR -2.0
Total
116.2
Projected score
LAL 57.1 · POR 59.1
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Lakers 2, Trail Blazers 2, even 1
LakersBetterTrail Blazers
G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82
Even
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89
G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79
LALBig
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34
G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50
PORSmall
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82
F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70
LALSmall
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44
C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42
PORSmall
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74
LakersBetterTrail Blazers
LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2
LALSmall
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2
PORSmall
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players
LALBig
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players
PORBig
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
Bench+6.7 · 5 players
PORBig
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestLAL betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Lakers
Guards
A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min
Forwards
J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew
Centers
W. Kessler31 min
Out
Z. WilliamsOut
Trail Blazers
Guards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LALPOR
Scoring
120.3 #5Points per game120.6 #4
1.18 #2Points per possession1.16 #5
102.9 #17Pace (possessions)103.5 #14
Shooting
60.1 #1Effective FG%56.2 #4
38.9 #43-point %35.3 #12
45.7 #93-point attempt rate51.5 #1
37.2 #2Free throw rate35.9 #3
Possessions
18.3 #28Turnover rate14.6 #9
26.8 #19Offensive rebound rate27.6 #14
23.4 #27Assists per game26.2 #17
Defense
115.0 #17Points allowed109.2 #10
1.11 #19Points allowed per possession1.06 #10
53.7 #17Opponent effective FG%51.3 #8
36.7 #22Opponent 3-point %32.1 #8
17.8 #4Turnovers forced14.8 #20
67.4 #29Defensive rebound rate77.3 #3
10.4 #4Steals per game8.6 #18
6.7 #3Blocks per game4.2 #21
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Raptors131–125
  • L@ Warriors95–112
  • W@ Clippers103–87
  • Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
  • W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Jazz112–90
  • Lvs Grizzlies103–124
  • W@ Lakers136–129
  • W@ Kings128–120
  • Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.