Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 16, 11:00 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Clippers
DEN	This season	LAC
3-2	Record	1-5
2-3	ATS	3-3
3-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 115–114 · win probability DEN 52%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

DEN 5, LAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

LAC offense vs DEN defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, LAC 28.0. Allowed: DEN 21.5, LAC 24.7

DENSmall

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 40.9% and 42.3% of their shots

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, DEN 2-1 away

DENSmall

DEN offense vs LAC defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, LAC 17.0%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, LAC 70.9%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: DEN away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 18	vs CLE	L117–119LU
Mar 20	@ ORL	L126–127LO
Mar 21	@ MIA	L123–147LO

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 18	vs MEM	W123–120LO
Mar 20	vs ATL	W115–92WU
Mar 22	vs DAL	W116–103WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 26 since 2021-22

DEN 17–9 LACDEN leads · 26 games since 2021-22 · DEN 13-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 19, 2025-26	DEN 114 @ LAC 115	LAC +4.5	LAC W
Jan 30, 2025-26	LAC 109 @ DEN 122	DEN +2.5	DEN W
Nov 12, 2025-26	DEN 130 @ LAC 116	LAC +4.5	DEN W
May 3, 2024-25	LAC 101 @ DEN 120	DEN -1.5	DEN W
May 1, 2024-25	DEN 105 @ LAC 111	LAC -5.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 4, Clippers 0, even 1

NuggetsBetterClippers

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

Even

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

DENBig

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

DENBig

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENSmall

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

DENBig

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

NuggetsBetterClippers

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Even

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

DENSmall

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

LAC4.2 #22

DEN		LAC
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.04 #27
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
37.4 #7	3-point %	38.6 #5
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
26.8 #14	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
10.2 #5	Steals per game	11.3 #3
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Clippers

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Clippers

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Clippers