Cleveland Cavaliers at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 18, 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Nuggets
CLE	This season	DEN
4-2	Record	3-2
2-4	ATS	2-3
3-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 118–118 · win probability DEN 50%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

CLE 2, DEN 2 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

CLE offense vs DEN defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

DEN offense vs CLE defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, CLE 1-2 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, DEN 70.5%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, DEN 31.3. Allowed: CLE 23.2, DEN 21.5

Even

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 43.6% and 40.9% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, DEN 15.9%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: CLE away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 20	vs CHI	W115–110LU
Mar 22	vs HOU	L100–117LU
Mar 25	vs LAL	L113–127LO

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 20	@ ORL	L126–127LO
Mar 21	@ MIA	L123–147LO
Mar 24	@ WSH	W107–97WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CLE 7–3 DENCLE leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 4 meetings · CLE 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 9, 2025-26	CLE 119 @ DEN 117	DEN -2.5	CLE W
Jan 2, 2025-26	DEN 108 @ CLE 113	CLE -13.5	DEN W
Dec 27, 2024-25	CLE 149 @ DEN 135	DEN +3.5	CLE W
Dec 5, 2024-25	DEN 114 @ CLE 126	CLE -3.5	CLE W
Mar 31, 2023-24	CLE 101 @ DEN 130	DEN -4.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 2, Nuggets 1, even 2

CavaliersBetterNuggets

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

Even

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

CLESmall

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

CLESmall

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

DENBig

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

Even

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

CavaliersBetterNuggets

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLEBig

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

DENBig

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

DEN4.4 #18

CLE		DEN
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.13 #9
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
37.0 #8	3-point %	37.4 #7
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
28.7 #4	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
7.8 #22	Steals per game	10.2 #5
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Nuggets

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Nuggets

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Nuggets