New York Knicks at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 10, 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Knicks and Clippers
NY	This season	LAC
2-4	Record	1-5
1-5	ATS	3-3
1-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 111–107 · win probability NY 60%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 218.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

NY 2, LAC 3 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

LAC offense vs NY defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, LAC 70.9%

LACBig

NY offense vs LAC defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, NY 1-2 away

LACSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, LAC 28.0. Allowed: NY 25.9, LAC 24.7

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: NY 13.2%, LAC 17.0%

Even

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 43.2% and 42.3% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: NY away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 11	@ LAL	L97–110LU
Mar 14	vs BOS	L103–107LU
Mar 16	@ WSH	W145–113WO

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 11	vs CLE	L91–124LU
Mar 13	@ POR	L97–116LU
Mar 16	vs DEN	W115–114WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

NY 4–6 LACLAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · NY 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 9, 2025-26	NY 118 @ LAC 126	LAC +1.5	LAC W
Jan 7, 2025-26	LAC 111 @ NY 123	NY -4.5	NY W
Mar 26, 2024-25	LAC 126 @ NY 113	NY +4.5	LAC W
Mar 7, 2024-25	NY 95 @ LAC 105	LAC -6.5	LAC W
Dec 16, 2023-24	NY 122 @ LAC 144	LAC -6.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 4, Clippers 0, even 1

KnicksBetterClippers

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

NYBig

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

NYBig

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

NYBig

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

Even

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

NYBig

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

KnicksBetterClippers

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

LACBig

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

NYBig

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

NYBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

NYSmall

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NY107.0 #27

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

NY1.05 #24

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

NY101.0 #28

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

NY49.5 #27

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

NY35.2 #13

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

NY43.2 #14

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

NY24.5 #23

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

NY15.2 #14

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

NY30.3 #6

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

NY26.2 #18

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

NY107.7 #6

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

NY1.07 #12

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

NY53.1 #14

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

NY35.5 #18

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

NY13.2 #29

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

NY78.7 #1

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

NY7.3 #23

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

NY4.0 #28

LAC4.2 #22

NY		LAC
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.05 #24	Points per possession	1.04 #27
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
35.2 #13	3-point %	38.6 #5
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
26.2 #18	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
7.3 #23	Steals per game	11.3 #3
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ Clippers

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

Clippers

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

Clippers