New York Knicks at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 11, 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Knicks and Lakers
NY	This season	LAL
2-4	Record	5-2
1-5	ATS	4-3
1-5	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 113–113 · win probability LAL 51%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

NY 1, LAL 6 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, LAL 67.4%

LALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

LALSmall

Recent form

Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

LALSmall

NY offense vs LAL defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: NY 13.2%, LAL 17.8%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

LALSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, LAL 37.2. Allowed: NY 25.9, LAL 30.7

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, NY 1-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 43.2% and 45.7% of their shots

Even

LAL offense vs NY defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: NY away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 14	vs BOS	L103–107LU
Mar 16	@ WSH	W145–113WO
Mar 17	vs SAC	W103–87WU

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 12	vs CLE	W127–113WO
Mar 14	vs GS	L95–112LU
Mar 16	@ POR	L129–136LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

NY 4–6 LALLAL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · NY 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2025-26	NY 97 @ LAL 110	LAL +5.5	LAL W
Feb 1, 2025-26	LAL 100 @ NY 112	NY -5.5	NY W
Mar 6, 2024-25	NY 109 @ LAL 113	LAL -2.5	LAL W
Feb 1, 2024-25	LAL 128 @ NY 112	NY -10.5	LAL W
Feb 3, 2023-24	LAL 113 @ NY 105	NY -2.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 2, Lakers 0, even 3

KnicksBetterLakers

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

Even

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

Even

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

NYSmall

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

Even

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

NYBig

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

KnicksBetterLakers

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

LALSmall

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

Even

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

NYBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

LALSmall

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NY107.0 #27

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

NY1.05 #24

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

NY101.0 #28

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

NY49.5 #27

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

NY35.2 #13

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

NY43.2 #14

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

NY24.5 #23

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

NY15.2 #14

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

NY30.3 #6

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

NY26.2 #18

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

NY107.7 #6

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

NY1.07 #12

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

NY53.1 #14

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

NY35.5 #18

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

NY13.2 #29

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

NY78.7 #1

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

NY7.3 #23

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

NY4.0 #28

LAL6.7 #3

NY		LAL
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.05 #24	Points per possession	1.18 #2
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
35.2 #13	3-point %	38.9 #4
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
26.2 #18	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
7.3 #23	Steals per game	10.4 #4
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ Lakers

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

Lakers

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

Lakers