Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Mar 14, 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Warriors and Lakers
GS	This season	LAL
4-3	Record	5-2
5-2	ATS	4-3
4-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 120–116 · win probability LAL 62%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

GS 4, LAL 3 · 2026-27 so far

GSBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, LAL 67.4%

LALBig

LAL offense vs GS defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GSSmall

GS offense vs LAL defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

LALSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

GSSmall

Recent form

Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, GS 2-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

GSSmall

Three-pointers

GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 47.1% and 45.7% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: GS 17.6%, LAL 17.8%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: GS 28.8, LAL 37.2. Allowed: GS 27.3, LAL 30.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: GS away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 16	vs CLE	L111–118WU
Mar 17	vs MEM	L108–111LU
Mar 19	vs POR	W119–97WU

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 16	@ POR	L129–136LO
Mar 17	vs PHX	W101–73WU
Mar 19	vs ATL	W141–116WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 28 since 2021-22

GS 12–16 LALLAL leads · 28 games since 2021-22 · GS 11-17 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 30, 2026-27	LAL 95 @ GS 112	GS +2.5	GS W
Oct 21, 2026-27	GS 105 @ LAL 127	LAL -6.5	LAL W
Apr 9, 2025-26	LAL 119 @ GS 103	GS -1.5	LAL W
Feb 28, 2025-26	LAL 129 @ GS 101	GS +3.5	LAL W
Feb 7, 2025-26	GS 99 @ LAL 105	LAL -1.5	LAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 1, Lakers 2, even 2

WarriorsBetterLakers

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

Even

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

LALSmall

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

LALBig

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

Even

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

GSSmall

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

WarriorsBetterLakers

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

GSSmall

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

LALSmall

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

GSBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

LALSmall

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestGS betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GS117.7 #11

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

GS1.17 #3

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

GS101.4 #25

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

GS55.3 #8

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

GS40.0 #2

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

GS47.1 #5

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

GS28.8 #15

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

GS16.7 #22

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

GS33.2 #1

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

GS27.4 #10

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

GS114.9 #16

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

GS1.13 #21

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

GS56.0 #25

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

GS35.2 #16

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

GS17.6 #5

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

GS70.4 #23

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

GS9.1 #11

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

GS4.1 #24

LAL6.7 #3

GS		LAL
Scoring
117.7 #11	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.17 #3	Points per possession	1.18 #2
101.4 #25	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
55.3 #8	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
40.0 #2	3-point %	38.9 #4
47.1 #5	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
28.8 #15	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
16.7 #22	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
33.2 #1	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
27.4 #10	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
114.9 #16	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.13 #21	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
56.0 #25	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
35.2 #16	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
17.6 #5	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
70.4 #23	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
9.1 #11	Steals per game	10.4 #4
4.1 #24	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Warriors @ Lakers

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Warriors

Lakers

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Warriors

Lakers